European gas prices dip near 2025 lows ahead of Trump–Putin summit

Europe’s natural gas prices have fallen close to their lowest levels of the year ahead of the historic summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which aims to explore ways to end the war that disrupted fuel flows from what was once Europe’s largest supplier, according to the latest observations by Bloomberg.

Gas futures traded in Amsterdam have dropped about 10% since the beginning of August, reaching levels not seen since May on August 15. While most traders do not expect a swift return of Russian pipeline gas to Europe—even if a ceasefire in Ukraine is achieved—any changes to sanctions on Russian energy could have major consequences for global supply.

European gas prices remain above pre-crisis levels, set before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine more than three years ago. Today, most of Europe’s gas comes from distant suppliers such as the US and Qatar, with less than 20% sourced from Russia last year. European buyers must also compete with Asia for these shipments. A revival of Russian LNG projects, some of which remain under US sanctions, could expand global supply and ease competition for cargoes.

Claudio Steuer, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, noted, “The extent of any energy-sanctions relief will hinge on the scale of a Putin-led ceasefire, a verifiable end to the war in Ukraine, and credible commitments to reconstruction in non-occupied Ukrainian territory.”

The Trump administration has sought to temper expectations for a breakthrough. Trump views the Alaska summit as a preliminary step toward a second, more consequential meeting that could include Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and possibly allied nations. Analysts caution that without a lasting peace, any immediate impact on energy supplies will be limited.

BloombergNEF projects that Russian LNG output could reach 50 million tons by 2030 if sanctions are lifted, a 50% increase from 2024 levels. Projects such as Arctic LNG 2 and two smaller liquefaction plants currently face operational restrictions.

Meanwhile, President Trump has warned Moscow of “very severe consequences” if a ceasefire is not agreed, and he recently doubled tariffs on Indian purchases of Russian oil. He is also encouraging Europe to increase LNG imports from the US, with several new projects expected to come online in the coming years. Europe has pledged to phase out Russian energy entirely by 2027.

Despite the recent price drop, analysts at Energy Aspects Ltd., led by Erisa Pasko and James Waddell, expect gas prices could rebound, as markets may be overestimating the immediate return of Russian supply. Prices could also rise if the US imposes stricter sanctions in the absence of a deal. European storage levels provide some buffer, with reserves currently about 73% full.

Jean-Christian Heintz, former energy-trading executive and consultant at Wideangle LNG, commented, “We are now used to expect the unexpected, both from Trump and Putin, and this explains why the market is having a hard time positioning itself.”

Ahead of the summit on Friday, Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, fell 1.4% to €31.70 by 9:55 a.m. in Amsterdam. Any potential market reaction to the talks, which begin at 3 p.m. New York time is expected only when trading resumes in Amsterdam on August 17.

By Tamilla Hasanova