"Polycrisis" brewing in Horn of Africa as climate, conflict and aid cuts converge

A combination of climate extremes, armed conflict, disease risks and shrinking humanitarian assistance is pushing the Greater Horn of Africa toward what conflict experts describe as a growing "polycrisis," with fears that conditions could deteriorate sharply in the second half of 2026 and into 2027.

Analysts contributing to The Conversation outlet's recent article warn that the strengthening El Niño climate pattern, the broader economic fallout from the conflict involving Iran, ongoing regional wars and localized political and environmental pressures are reinforcing one another, creating what they describe as a potentially catastrophic combination of risks.

Climate pressures deepen food insecurity

Successive poor rainy seasons have already taken a heavy toll on agriculture across eastern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa. The short rains in late 2025 were well below average in parts of Somalia, eastern Kenya and eastern Ethiopia, while the March-to-May 2026 rainy season also brought significantly below-normal precipitation.

The lack of rainfall has reduced crop production, diminished grazing land and strained water supplies for livestock, further undermining rural livelihoods.

Conditions are also expected to remain unfavorable across the northern Horn of Africa, including Ethiopia's densely populated highlands, as well as much of South Sudan and Sudan, where forecasts point to another below-average rainy season.

According to the outlet, the emergence of a strong El Niño event is adding to these concerns, which could bring both prolonged drought and severe flooding to different parts of the region, triggering displacement and widespread livelihood losses.

Lingering disease risks

Health officials are also monitoring an unpredictable Ebola virus outbreak byu a new strain affecting the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda. 

Although Uganda discharged its last Ebola patient this week and has reported no new cases for more than three weeks, experts caution that the regional threat has not disappeared. Should the virus spread into neighbouring South Sudan, it could create a major public health emergency while further complicating responses to food insecurity and conflict.

Armed conflicts compound humanitarian pressures

Violence continues to undermine resilience across the region. As the article recalls, every country in the Greater Horn is experiencing prolonged armed conflict, with the exception of Kenya, involving multiple actors competing for political and military advantage.

Regional analysts have warned of a possible escalation in violence in Ethiopia and South Sudan. Conflict remains one of the principal drivers of famine, and famine or the risk of famine has already been identified in several countries across the region.

Middle East conflict adds economic strain

Developments beyond the region are also worsening the outlook. According to the report, the conflict involving Iran has already pushed up transportation and food costs.

More significantly, disruptions to fertilizer supplies could reduce agricultural production later this year, keeping food prices elevated even after active hostilities subside.

The report argues that the Horn of Africa is likely to be hit twice by fertilizer shortages: lower local agricultural output will coincide with rising global food prices. The supply bottleneck also affects surplus-producing regions that would normally help stabilize food availability and prices in neighboring food-deficit areas.

Foreign aid cuts weaking response mechanisms

Compounding these challenges is a sharp decline in international humanitarian assistance.

According to the report, the dismantling of much of the global humanitarian response system — including the closure of USAID and significant reductions in foreign aid spending by the United States and several Western governments — has weakened the international community's ability to respond to large-scale emergencies.

Combined with longstanding governance and political challenges across eastern Africa, these reductions increase the risk of further displacement, worsening food insecurity and higher mortality.

The report concludes that the region's overlapping crises are not simply occurring simultaneously but are reinforcing one another.

"Climate and epidemic shocks almost inevitably exacerbate conflict and encourage crackdowns on population movements," the outlet cautions.

By Nazrin Sadigova