Pundit: Russian-Armenian relations to continue to deteriorate Vladimir Kireev on Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az presents its exclusive interview with Russian pundit, International Eurasian Movement’s Analytical Department Head Vladimir Kireev.

- Vladimir Kireev, how do you assess the current stage of the normalisation of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, particularly the negotiations in Moscow, Washington and Brussels?

- In my opinion, the conflict situation is essentially over. Both sides have reached a state that works "in their favour”. Armenia, despite all the trauma of losing Karabakh (which is perceived by many as the foundation of national identity), is not ready to fight for it, de facto it is more satisfied with the normalisation of relations with Azerbaijan, which is also necessary to resolve the situation with Türkiye as a significant economic player in the region.

In addition, Armenia is seeking to reduce its dependence on Iran, a necessity for building relations with Israel, the authority of which is quite high in Armenia.

Meanwhile, the talks in Brussels, Washington and Moscow, while playing an important role, have only shown the limits of the possible claims for both capitals, confirming the situation that has developed in practice.

- How likely is it that Baku and Yerevan will conclude a peace agreement in the foreseeable future, given the dragging out of the process by the Armenian leadership?

- If Azerbaijan benefits from concluding a peace agreement as soon as possible, Yerevan is interested in postponing this event for the future, as it has hopes of playing the current situation in its favour over time. I think Yerevan is interested primarily in economic relations with Türkiye, which have been slowed down for many years because of Baku.

With the normalisation of relations between Armenia and Türkiye, when the economies of the two countries are intertwined, there may indeed be a new situation with unpredictable content, when the significance of the concluded peace treaty may both increase or decrease.

- Will Armenia's foreign policy course change in the future? More precisely, is it possible for Armenia to finally break away from Russia and leave the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)?

- Yerevan has been distancing itself from Russia since 2018, seeking to create closer ties with Brussels, Paris and Washington. Relations between Armenia and Russia have shifted from informal and friendly to distanced and alienated. The general public in all countries, including Azerbaijan, is not well aware that Moscow and Baku are now in closer and more trusting relations than Moscow and Yerevan, despite Armenia's membership in the CSTO and EAEU and despite Russia's abundant assistance.

It is easy to assume that these relations will continue to deteriorate, which is connected with the offences of 2020, and most importantly, with the pro-Western views of Pashinyan and his entourage, for whom this is not a question of pragmatism but of personal convictions. Paradoxically, Pashinyan and his entourage would like to distance themselves even further from Russia, but they cannot do so yet, as the countries are linked by numerous economic, social and security ties.

It is still important for Yerevan to balance between the centres of power, opposing their influence to each other, but the time of such balancing is not infinite, and sooner or later Armenia will have to lean only to one side.

- Armenia refuses to provide Russia with control functions at border and customs checkpoints at the entry and exit to the Zangazur corridor. What is the reason for this new blackmail by Yerevan?

- Yerevan is concerned about Russia's growing cooperation with Azerbaijan and fears that Moscow may play a major role in boosting Zangazur's influence in the region. However, Russia offers everyone a mutually beneficial project of mutual openness, when Armenia gets access to Russia the Azerbaijani land corridor, and Azerbaijan to Türkiye through Armenia.

This is a win-win scenario that does not involve the loss of territorial control over its lands by either Armenia or Azerbaijan.  But from the point of view of Russian interests, this distances Yerevan from Moscow.

- Why is Armenia purchasing large quantities of weapons from India and Iran?

- Without knowing the social situation in Armenia and having no idea about its mood, it would be easy to assume that Armenia intends to take revenge for 2020. However, the Armenian society is not massively ready for a new war and for a military test.

Therefore, it would be challenging for Pashinyan to start a new war, even if he wanted to, and from what we know there is no indication of such intentions. Rather, it is about its own security: Armenia feels abandoned by everyone - Russia, the European Union and the United States.

It seems to Armenians that nobody is going to help them, just as they have done for the past three years. Therefore, it is a question of increasing their defence capabilities, rather than preparing for aggression. It's a way to protect what they have now - their life, their territory, under the conditions of international isolation, despite numerous promises of help and support from many countries.

- How do you see the future processes in the South Caucasus in view of Armenian attempts to militarise the region?

- I do not expect a new war, because Armenia is not morally ready for risks and wartime trials. Armenian society seeks economic prosperity and security. Of course, there are attempts to rock the situation by many parties, directed equally against Russia, Iran and Türkiye, and currently, this is done by certain circles in the US and the European Union. But Yerevan realises that it will not get real support from there, so Armenians are not ready to risk everything and turn their own country into a bomb.

Of course, there are such circles in Yerevan, but they are nowhere near a controlling stake in Armenia. Therefore, despite the explosiveness of the situation in the South Caucasus, it will not be so easy to swing the flywheel of a big war in the region, at least from Armenia.