Real reason Chinese officials dropping like flies Analysis by The Daily Beast

The Daily Beast has published an article claiming that Xi Jinping is cleaning house, disappearing top Chinese officials and replacing them with loyal allies. Caliber.Az reprints the article.

Xi Jinping is on a tear.

Beijing confirmed this week that the president of the People’s Republic of China has replaced the general at the head of China’s rocket force unit, General Li Yuchao, and his deputy, shaking up the very military unit that would likely be central to any effort to take over Taiwan.

The unit, China’s People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force, steers China’s land-based nuclear and conventional ballistic missiles, hosting nine bases responsible for everything from missile tests to overseeing China’s central nuclear stockpile.

Li and his deputy, General Liu Guangbin, were under investigation as part of an anti-corruption program, according to The South China Morning Post. Beijing has replaced Li and Liu at the top of China’s missile force with Wang Houbin, who will be the new commander, and Xu Xisheng, who will serve as the new political commissar, according to the state council information office of China.

The ousters mark the largest shakeup in the upper echelons of China’s military in years, as US officials warn that China is growing increasingly aggressive toward Taiwan, with sights set on being prepared for possible conflict for either 2025 or 2027. And it’s not just the rocket force Xi is going after: The overhaul at the unit coincides with China’s foreign minister, Qin Gang, dropping out from the public eye for several days, only to be replaced himself.

Xi has long focused his anti-graft campaign on the military to solidify his power and to modernize the rocket force. Corruption has been a constant threat to the force through the years, according to Matt Bruzzese, a Chinese language analyst at BluePath Labs, which has studied the PLA’s rocket force.

“As the PLARF builds up, there is no doubt a lot of money sloshing around right now from lucrative construction and supply contracts, and it wouldn’t be the first time there has been corruption in the PLA contracting process,” Bruzzese told The Daily Beast, citing the notorious sentencing of General Gu Junshan from 2015, who was accused of “immense” corruption.

And although the removals may be targeted at corruption or other reports of possible wrongdoing, Xi is likely working to surround himself with more yes-men as he works to bolster his sense of control over China’s military and foreign policy apparatus, according to Tony Hu, the first Pentagon senior country director for Taiwan.

“It’s partly to solidify his control to ensure all those under him are all very loyal to him,” Hu told The Daily Beast.

Paranoia

Going after the upper rank of the PLA’s rocket force—whom Xi handpicked—in particular indicates Xi may be feeling a series of doubts about his own decision-making. Hu pointed out that the foreign minister—who was ousted after rumours swirled that he was having an ill-advised affair—was also handpicked by Xi.

”This shows that the leadership that Xi has handpicked might be causing him to have concerns about loyalty,” Hu said.

After Qin Gang’s ouster, “he’s probably double checking everybody’s background,” Hu said. “That should cause serious worry in the mind of Xi Jinping to think, who else might be foreign agent or influenced by foreign countries, foreign governments, within his inner circle.”

Freddy Lim, a Taiwanese legislator, told The Daily Beast in an interview in July that Qin Gang’s mysterious disappearance from the public view shows that Xi is looking over his shoulder.

“It shows that Xi Jinping doesn’t doesn’t feel safe in his position,” Lim said. “If he reveals some realities, some reasons why he shouldn’t be in that position anymore then it might just damage Xi Jinping’s authority… so I think he wants to… get rid of Qin Gang.”

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang at a press conference in Beijing, China, May 23, 2023.

The replacements Xi selected for the top of the rocket force come from the navy and the air force, and lack much experience in this space—a key indication that this is likely about trustworthiness and not technical competence.

“The fact that he thought it was necessary to take such an action rather than promote more experienced commanders from within indicates that he is primarily interested in cleaning house and breaking up whatever good ole boy network existed in the top ranks,” Bruzzese said.

Part of Xi’s inclination to shore up the amount of loyal allies surrounding him in the upper ranks in recent days may stem from a growing sense that he may be getting boxed in as other countries are working on countering what he sees as China’s rightful claim to Taiwan, warned Hu.

“The fact that the United States is beginning to formulate an alliance—like with US, Japan, Korea tying together, and US-Australia, and other NATO countries becoming involved—that can formulate an alliance that China has to worry about,” Hu said. “Because there’s no way they can win if they are faced with a united alliance with a collective defence objective like NATO.”

“He is seeing a situation where he has been surrounded,” Hu said.

Just last week Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Tony Blinken visited Australia as part of a broader US government effort to work against China’s influence in the region. The visit came months after the Biden administration inked a nuclear-powered submarine deal with Australia aimed at countering China. During the visit, the leaders agreed on longer expeditionary trips from US submarines and to continue upgrades to Australian bases in the north.

Backfire

The irony of it all is that Xi may be feeling boxed in by other countries by acting increasingly aggressive towards Taiwan, and has likely created the scenario that feeds his growing sense of insecurity.

“His aggressiveness has united countries around the globe, making sure Asia remains peaceful. So it’s his aggressive action that caused this,” Hu said. “I’m not sure he sees this.”

Xi likely opted to remove the rocket force leaders from the equation so he could ensure compliance—and zero drama—if and when push comes to shove with Taiwan, given how important the rocket force would be to any possible conflict, according to Hu.

“Rocket force is the force that’s going to basically initiate an attack on Taiwan if he ever tries to attack. Cyber and rocket will be the first thing that he uses,” Hu told The Daily Beast. “It’s a critical force to set the scene, basically set up for a possible successful invasion of Taiwan… He wants to put his most, most loyal person in.”

But the rampage of dismissals or removals may have implications for China’s readiness for conflict with Taiwan.

Following a clampdown on corruption, Beijing may introduce new red tape that could impact procurement or promotions, according to David C. Logan, who researches nuclear weapons and the US-China security relationship.

Chinese President Xi Jinping dresses up to show off troop training and combat preparedness, Nov. 8, 2022.

“If the leadership change is because of corruption, I would imagine that this might slow the modernization program down,” Logan, assistant professor of security studies at the Fletcher School of Tufts University, told The Daily Beast. “That is just always going to slow things down. Especially when it comes to things like weapons procurement and development and testing and fielding, even promotions.”

There may be “short-term cost to readiness and force development,” particularly with two new leaders without relevant background, noted Bruzzese. “This is also terrible for morale. If you’re a senior PLARF officer, the fact that they’ve very publicly sent outside babysitters to look after your service because they don’t trust you has to be quite embarrassing.”

Other units and leaders would do well to be on watch for other purges, as this is likely not the last leadership makeover Xi is eyeing, according to Hu.

“I don’t think this is the end. I think this is the beginning,” Hu said.