Reuters: Chinese refiners may replace Venezuelan oil with Iranian crude

Traders and analysts expect Chinese independent refineries to shift from Venezuelan crude to heavy crude from Iran in the coming months. 

The possibility comes after Venezuelan oil shipments to China were suspended following recent U.S. actions, including changes in Caracas’ political leadership and the reorientation of part of Venezuela’s exports toward the American market, per a report by Reuters.

The report reads that the United States and Venezuela have agreed on deliveries of up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan oil to the U.S., which is expected to reduce shipments to China—a major buyer of cheap crude, including from Venezuela, Iran, and Russia.

In 2025, China imported around 389,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude, accounting for roughly 4% of its total seaborne crude imports.

As a result, independent Chinese refineries are expected to gradually shift to Russian and Iranian supplies, while also exploring oil from other non-sanctioned countries to offset the Venezuelan shortfall, at least until market conditions become clearer.

The developments followed escalating tensions sparked by a U.S. military raid on January 3, 2026, in Caracas, Venezuela. U.S. forces conducted airstrikes to suppress defences, raided President Nicolás Maduro's residence, and captured Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. They were flown to New York for federal charges related to narcoterrorism and drug trafficking. Trump justified the operation as law enforcement with military support, emphasising access to Venezuelan oil and disrupting drug routes.

By Khagan Isayev