Reuters: Dogfight over South Asia could redefine next-gen air combat strategies

A high-stakes aerial battle between Chinese-made Pakistani J-10 fighter jets and French-made Indian Rafale aircraft is drawing intense scrutiny from global militaries eager to extract lessons for future conflicts.

The clash, which reportedly saw Pakistani jets shoot down at least two Indian military aircraft on May 7, marks a potentially significant moment for Beijing's advanced fighter capabilities, according to two US officials speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity.

The rare confrontation provides a valuable real-world case study of how modern fighter jets, pilots, and air-to-air missile systems perform in combat—an opportunity defence planners and analysts worldwide are unlikely to ignore.

“This kind of live engagement is extremely valuable,” said Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “Air warfare communities in China, the US, and across Europe will be extremely interested in gathering as much ground truth as possible—what equipment was used, what worked, and what didn’t.”

According to one of the US officials, there is high confidence that Pakistan deployed its Chinese-made J-10 aircraft and used them to launch air-to-air missiles during the operation. Much of the online discussion has centred on speculation that Pakistan may have used China’s PL-15 missile, and whether it went head-to-head with the Meteor, a radar-guided air-to-air missile used on India’s Rafales and developed by the European MBDA consortium.

While there has been no official confirmation regarding which missiles were used, Barrie emphasised the significance of such a matchup. “You have arguably China’s most capable weapon against the West’s most capable weapon, if indeed it was being carried; we don’t know that,” he noted.

French aircraft manufacturer Dassault Aviation, which produces the Rafale, declined to comment, while MBDA could not immediately be reached due to the French public holiday.

Serious questions remain. Western defence analysts and arms industry sources noted that key details such as whether Indian jets carried the Meteor missile or what level of training the pilots had undergone are still unknown. Analysts also warned against rushing to conclusions about weapon performance in the chaos of war.

“There will be audits of what works and what doesn’t, but the other overlay is the proverbial fog of war,” said Byron Callan, a Washington-based defense expert and managing partner at Capital Alpha Partners. He added that US defense companies routinely receive feedback on weapons used in Ukraine and that a similar exchange of insights is likely underway between India's European suppliers and Pakistan’s Chinese partners.

A Western defense source noted that an image circulating online showed a seeker from what appeared to be a missile that failed to hit its target—though it remains unclear whether it belonged to a PL-15 or a Meteor. Reports also conflict over whether Pakistan possesses the domestic variant of the PL-15 used by China’s air force, or a downgraded export version unveiled in 2021.

Barrie, who has studied the PL-15 extensively, said it was most likely that Pakistan operates the export version.

While the PL-15 is believed to have substantial range, a Western industry source pushed back against claims it exceeds the Meteor in reach, calling such assertions “overstated.” However, the source conceded that the Chinese missile’s capabilities may be “greater than was thought.”

The emergence of the PL-15 has long been seen by Western analysts as proof that China is moving beyond its dependence on Soviet-derived technology. Its capabilities have triggered strategic responses, including the US development of the AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile by Lockheed Martin, designed to counter threats like the PL-15 with improved beyond-visual-range performance.

In Europe, discussions are underway about a possible mid-life upgrade to the Meteor, involving improvements in propulsion and guidance, though analysts say progress remains slow.

Meanwhile, the US has already taken steps to enhance its air combat arsenal. In March, President Donald Trump awarded a contract to Boeing to build the most advanced fighter jet in US Air Force history, expected to feature stealth capabilities, cutting-edge sensors, and next-generation engines.

For now, experts agree that much remains unclear about the South Asian dogfight—but one thing is certain: military observers from Beijing to Washington are paying very close attention.

By Tamilla Hasanova