Russia, China show great interest in Zangezur corridor Expert’s opinion on Caliber.Az

Russian expert on Eurasia Alexander Razuvaev has had an interview with Caliber.Az.

- How important are the Middle Corridor and the Zangezur Corridor in the South Caucasus for Russia and China? How is cooperation between Baku and Moscow developing within the North-South project and other transit projects?

- I think that Russia and China are interested in peace in the South Caucasus, in the complete liberalisation of trade routes, which primarily envisages the use of the potential of the Zangezur corridor, which will connect the two parts of Azerbaijan.

In this case, goods from Türkiye will be supplied to Russia through a more comfortable logistics route, and this is just one of the unique transit opportunities of this trade route.

The North-South corridor is also important for Russia. It envisages trade with Iran and India. There are few countries ready to accept Russian investments. On the other hand, Russia is interested in the economic prospects for making investments that are now opening up in Karabakh.

The Zangezur corridor is an access for Türkiye to the markets of Central Asian countries. This is very important for the Turkic countries. The launch of the corridor was actively discussed immediately after Azerbaijan’s victory in the 44-day second Karabakh war.

Baku’s advantage is that it was able to fix its interests at the diplomatic level - in the tripartite statement dated November 10, which determined the mode in which the Zangezur corridor will operate.

The importance of opening this corridor is recognised by everyone - both regional and external actors, up to the biggest global players, except for Armenia, but this is a separate paradox of the situation with the Zangezur corridor.

As for China, it is withdrawing from its partially binding obligations on the US state securities. Beijing has a lot of money, and it is also actively looking for the spheres to make investments.

The transport hub, being implemented by restoring communications and launching the Zangezur corridor, will provide the shortest onshore route from China to Southern Europe. This is clear and obvious.

Of course, the Middle and Zangezur corridors are an important trade route for China, into which it will invest because there is no other effective alternative.

Azerbaijan is strengthening and developing its transport and transit potential at the junction of the East-West and North-South routes in the centre of the Eurasian continent.

From this point of view, it turns out that Azerbaijan is the centre of Eurasia. In general, Russia can know about a person’s views depending on attitude towards Azerbaijan and Armenia. If a person talks about the “brotherly Armenian people”, that Russia must support Armenia at any cost, then this person lives in the past.

Proceeding from such considerations, Russia acted this way during Romanov era. When a Russian says that Azerbaijan must be Russia’s main partner, he at least knows how to count money, understands the importance of transit trade for Russia with Iran, Türkiye and other countries, understands the laws of macroeconomics. Such a person lives in the present and sees prospects for the future.

However, the future for me is also a common unified economy of Russia and the Turkic countries. Great Russian scientist Lev Gumilev talked about this. Azerbaijan, Türkiye, Central Asia - once almost all of these territories were part of the single Mongol Empire; it was a single market for goods, services, and capital.

So such an international economic model is not the invention of something new, but a return to its roots and traditions.

- What do France and India need in the South Caucasus?

- Unfortunately, the South Caucasus is facing destructive moments in its agenda of peace and prosperity. India and France have been supplying weapons to Armenia for several months. Amid these processes, revanchist statements have been heard.

In this context, I don’t understand what does Armenia hope for? After all, if Yerevan tries to start a war, then Armenian statehood may disappear. Armenia will face such a situation if it tries to leave the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). Its economy will be greatly affected after leaving the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

Moreover, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus are unlikely to notice Armenia’s withdrawal from the economic union, because the Armenian economy is insignificant and has limited resources.

There is a big Armenian diaspora in France, it is clear that there is lobbying and some Armenian influence in some countries, but I reiterate that military revenge is suicidal for Armenia.

As for India, it has its own painful moments. By cooperating with Yerevan, New Delhi wants to annoy China, with which it has cold relations. On the other hand, India is trying to establish itself in the arms market and show itself as a global player in this sphere.

I think that the Indians have chosen a bad and weak partner – Armenia. It is necessary to be friends and trade with the rich and smart, in this case with Azerbaijan, Türkiye, Russia.

- Will a peace treaty be signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2024?

- I would like to hope that a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia will be signed in the new year and this will relieve tension between the parties.

Moreover, the war ended with Azerbaijan’s victory. It is impossible to review anything, so Armenia should realise the current situation very quickly and accept the world as it is now, on the proposed terms. This is the most profitable and safest option for Yerevan, in fact, the only way out of the situation.

- Russia and Azerbaijan are at the stage of establishing diplomatic relations with Afghanistan. Moscow did not even close the embassy in Kabul. What does this trend mean? Can we say that the Taliban have finally become legitimate in world politics? How will this affect the region?

- The Soviet presence in Afghanistan was forgotten long ago, but Russia did not close the embassy in Kabul even when the Taliban regime resumed. As far as we know, the Taliban is engaged with the so-called “gray” trade with Uzbekistan and other neighbouring countries.

The Taliban are currently in power in Afghanistan, whether someone likes it or not, one way or another it is establishing diplomatic relations with various countries and has been conducting its policy in the region for more than one month.

I think that this is the choice of the Afghan people. Therefore, I think that many developed and civilised countries will begin establishing diplomatic relations with Kabul in the near future.

An important issue for the future of Afghanistan is the international currency reserves, which have been seized by the US. The country is not rich, and of course, Afghanistan could really use this money. However, Washington has chosen a different path - to destroy this or that opponent economically, this is in the spirit of the Americans. I still think that the West will also someday recognise the Taliban, but it will be the last among the countries which will do this.

In general, while speaking about general trends in geopolitics, the integration processes are observed in Eurasia, this process is very active, for example, among the Turkic countries. I think that the sooner the economy of Eurasia becomes unified, the better for everyone.