Russia freezes its participation in START agreement with US World on the brink of nuclear war?

"Vladimir Putin has said Russia will suspend its remaining nuclear weapons treaty with the US, a move western officials said spelt the end of the post-cold war arms control regime," according to a front-page article in the online edition of the Financial Times.

Of course, everyone is now concerned about how much threat does this decision of Moscow pose to the world security system?

"I am forced to announce today that Russia is suspending its participation in the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)," the Russian president said. Putin said that in order to return to the START, Russia "must understand how NATO's complex strike arsenal will be accounted for."

The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) is the only remaining element of the once comprehensive system of arms control agreements between the US and Russia. It also limits the number of strategic nuclear weapons, such as long-range missiles. Under the START, each country may have no more than 800 nuclear weapons carriers and no more than 1,550 warheads. In February 2021, US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin extended the agreement until 2026.

The START agreement provides for regular mutual inspections at intercontinental ballistic missile bases, strategic submarine bases and strategic aviation bases, as well as at loading, storage, repair, and test sites. From 2011 to 2020, the parties carried out 328 such inspections. Since 2020, they have - by mutual agreement - not been carried out because of the pandemic.

In other words, Russia has now abandoned its formal commitments and thus opened itself up to nuclear blackmail. The NATO bloc has already called Russia's decision to suspend participation in the START "a breakdown of the global arms control architecture" and called on Moscow to reconsider its decision.

Washington criticised Putin's statement, calling it "deeply unfortunate and irresponsible".

"We will keep a close eye on what Russia is actually doing. We will certainly make sure that the security of our country and our allies are not compromised," said Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.

What would be the consequences of Russia withdrawing from the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty? Would it escalate an already heightened nuclear threat in the world? And does Putin's decision increase the risk that Russia will use nuclear weapons in the same Ukraine?

Foreign experts answered these questions for Caliber.Az.

Gleb Parfyonov, head of the security department of the Ukrainian Doctrine Center for Political Studies, believes that the rejection of START-III plays into the hands of the Americans more in this case, despite publicly saying otherwise. The restrictions imposed by the treaty did not allow for expansion against China, and China itself is not eager to sign an analogue of this treaty. Therefore, the Russian nuclear blackmail even played a certain role here, he says.

"In general, there has long been talking that Moscow would try to escalate the situation in order to initiate talks on the ongoing war in Ukraine. Nuclear blackmail was among the possible options. That they would detonate a charge at the Novaya Zemlya test site and Europe would be frightened and it would be possible to put pressure on the need to start negotiations. Something similar is being attempted by Russia, but so far this looks like a weak trick, as the failed test of the Sarmat ballistic missile was literally on February 20. Therefore, it is most likely another bluff, because the Russians have nothing else to do," Parfyonov said.

Vladislav Inozemtsev, a Russian political scientist and head of the Centre for Post-Industrial Society Studies, believes that in this case, we are talking about a rather propagandistic move.

"The fact is that, apparently, the Kremlin has been thinking for a long time about what can be said to show its determination to the West. And, by and large, nothing was found. Because before that, the topic of withdrawing from the nuclear weapons test ban treaties was discussed, but it apparently seemed too radical, so in fact they temporarily withdrew from the treaty, according to which Russia already has fewer warheads and significantly fewer carriers than stipulated by the conditions. That is, in this case, in order to really violate the terms of this agreement, the Russian military-industrial complex needs to work for at least two more years. That is, until 2025 when the contract is already expiring.

Therefore, I think it is a demarche without any consequences," said the Russian expert.

And the use of nuclear weapons does not depend on it in any way, he added.

"And I also want to say that, in my view, this is an absolutely empty initiative designed to somehow veil the feeling of a huge gap in the strategic initiative that Russia has. That is, it cannot now offer anything that would frighten the West, and this is a very palliative solution," Inozemtsev noted.

In his turn, Pavlo Lakiychuk, a military expert of the Kyiv-based Strategy XXI Centre, reminded that there is such a notion in the Russian language and in Russian culture - a "Filkina gramota", i.e. a document that has no real legal force.

"How it originated is a long story from the Russian chronicle. In a nutshell, Ivan the Bloody (or the Terrible - whichever you prefer) called the letters of Metropolitan Philip 'a Filkina gramota', and the saintly martyr himself was contemptuously called, respectively, Filka by oprichnina," the expert said.

According to him, START-3, also known as New START, was signed by the Nobel Peace Prize laureate Barack Obama and acting President Dmitry Medvedev in 2010. The treaty was designed for 10 years, with a five-year extension option agreed upon by the parties. For the past three years, under the pretext of the COVID-19 pandemic, the treaty has not been implemented in terms of arms control by the parties.

"However, despite the fact that Putin considers START-3 a 'piece of paper', he went ahead and signed an extension of START-3 in January 2021 - a 'candy bar' for the new US president. But the new US president did not understand the 'generosity of the Russian soul' and did not accept Putin's attitude towards international law. So it is possible to blackmail the 'partner'. The US has repeatedly proposed resuming mutual START-3 inspections but Russia has ignored these initiatives.

Notably, Putin put the message of START-3 'suspension' in the last part of his speech. According to him, the US is allegedly preparing to test nuclear weapons, and the US is allegedly developing new weapons with nuclear capabilities. He also accused the West of involvement in drone attacks on strategic facilities located on Russian territory and stressed that NATO has nuclear capabilities not only from the US but also from the UK and France, hinting that they should bear joint responsibility with the US in case of renewal of the treaty. Putin 'forgot' to mention China's nuclear weapons. It looks like this was, in fact, the main international message he included in the text of the address. And literally, it means that the Russian Federation can now test nuclear weapons and increase its numbers without the world community's control (though of course, 'it will not do it first' - do you believe it?). Another aspect of the Kremlin's nuclear blackmail," Lakiychuk concluded.