Russia’s Shahed-type drones losing their bite in Ukraine

The Iranian Shahed 131 and 136 drones, also known in Russia as Geran 1 and 2, have been significant in Moscow's strike campaigns against Ukrainian infrastructure. These drones have also posed threats in the Middle East, impacting countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel.

Notably, Shahed-136 drones were involved in the 2019 attack on Saudi Aramco's oil facilities, disrupting a significant portion of the world's oil supply. They have also been used by the Houthis to target vessels in strategic maritime routes, affecting global trade, Caliber.Az reports per foreign media.

However, the effectiveness of these drones in Ukraine has been decreasing. Recently, Ukraine has enhanced its counter-drone and air defence systems, improving its radar and sensor networks and developing specialized "mobile fire groups" to target Shahed drones. 

Official data shows that Ukraine's interception rate of Shahed drones has risen to an average of 91 per cent since March 2024, compared to 80 per cent in the previous six months, with the highest rate of 83 per cent in November.

Ukraine's success is attributed to its advanced multispectrum sensor coverage and effective countermeasures. These include mobile counter-UAS systems, short-range air defenses such as ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns, German-made Gepard systems, shoulder-fired missiles like Stinger and Igla, and laser-guided rockets like the US APKWS. Coordination among ground units, command posts, and aviation is crucial to prevent friendly fire and maximize the effectiveness of these defences.

The diminishing impact of the Shaheds highlights the overstated claims of their operational significance. Effective, layered countermeasures—such as anti-aircraft guns, MANPADS, and low-cost guided interceptors—can effectively neutralize these drones. The key challenge for NATO allies is whether to prioritize investment in scalable, cost-effective air defence systems amidst competing defence needs.

Despite their reduced effectiveness, Shahed drones should not be underestimated. They can still expose air defense positions, deplete interceptor resources, and cause significant damage if they evade defenses. Their threat is amplified when used in saturation attacks with other long-range missiles. Addressing this threat remains a crucial issue for NATO defence strategies.