Russia seeks to drive Ukraine out of Kursk under potential "Trump plan" Analysis by Forbes

Russia is intensifying efforts to push Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region, with the motive linked to a prospective "Trump plan".

According to the American publication Forbes, these aggressive actions by Russia are tied to the possible introduction of a plan associated with former US President Donald Trump, per Caliber.Az.

Military experts suggest that Russia’s operations near the Ukrainian border may be a strategic move to position itself advantageously for anticipated negotiations that could result in freezing the conflict.

What is the "Trump plan"?

The report highlights the concept of the "Trump plan," which has been a topic of discussion in international circles as a potential method for resolving the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. This plan centres around freezing the conflict along the current front line, which would halt active hostilities without formally ending the war.

As proposed, the plan would involve Russia agreeing to suspend the conflict in return for territorial concessions. Sources indicate that while Russia might relinquish some of the territories occupied in eastern Ukraine, it would still retain significant areas, including Crimea and the Donbas region.

Russia's strategic moves near Kursk

Forbes analysts suggest that Russia's focus on fortifying its presence in the Kursk region could be part of a broader strategy tied to potential negotiations for a "frozen front." The Kursk region is strategically crucial, given its proximity to Ukraine and its importance for defence and leveraging diplomatic pressure. Control over this area could provide Moscow with a tactical edge in talks.

Reports suggest that Moscow is intent on displacing the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) from this region before any negotiations begin, aiming to secure a stronger position if discussions about Trump's plan come to fruition.

Potential impact of a frozen conflict

If the "Trump plan" is implemented, Russia might make territorial concessions, possibly returning around 270 square miles of the Kursk region to Ukraine. In exchange, Russia could retain control over approximately 45,000 square miles of Ukrainian territory, including significant parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

However, such an exchange of territories would carry enormous political, diplomatic, and military challenges for both sides. Experts caution that achieving a resolution through these terms would be fraught with complexities and risks, potentially impacting the stability of the region and the broader geopolitical landscape.

By Tamilla Hasanova