War-risk insurance spikes as Ukraine targets tankers bound for Russian ports

Shipping costs for commodities moving through the Black Sea rose on December 1 after Ukrainian naval drones struck two tankers en route to a Russian port, prompting fears of further incidents and driving up war-risk insurance premiums, industry sources told Reuters.

The Black Sea remains a vital corridor for transporting grain, crude oil and oil products. Its coastline is shared by Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania and Türkiye, as well as Russia and Ukraine.

According to shipping and insurance sources, war-risk rates for a standard seven-day voyage — set individually by underwriters and calculated as a percentage of a vessel’s value — have climbed to 0.5% for ships calling at Ukrainian ports, up from 0.4% a week earlier. Insurance for vessels heading to Russian Black Sea ports, which is typically higher, has risen to between 0.65% and 0.8%, compared with roughly 0.6% last week.

An official from the Security Service of Ukraine told Reuters that the two tankers targeted by naval drones were empty and travelling to Novorossiysk, the major Russian Black Sea oil terminal. Both ships were under Western sanctions.

Munro Anderson, head of operations at Vessel Protect—a marine war-risk and insurance specialist under Pen Underwriting—said the attacks indicate an ongoing Ukrainian effort to curb Russia’s oil revenues. That campaign, he noted, is influencing how underwriters assess both intention and capability.

“Rates have firmed in line with that view. For Russian port calls, underwriters are pricing in a broader range of possible strike locations and a higher likelihood of repetition,” Anderson said. “As Ukrainian activity increases, the probability of reciprocal Russian action grows. That creates a more even risk gradient across both trades than we have seen in some time.”

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Monday condemned attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea, calling them unacceptable and issuing a warning to “all related sides.”

Naval analyst Andrii Ryzhenko, a former deputy chief of staff of the Ukrainian Navy, told Reuters that these latest strikes mark the first time non-military, non-Russian-flagged vessels have been attacked in international waters in the Black Sea. He added that he does not expect Russia to retaliate against commercial ships heading to Ukraine while they are inside the territorial waters of Türkiye, Bulgaria or Romania, since that would constitute an attack on NATO territory.

“They’re (Russia) attacking vessels all of the time, at least in Ukrainian territorial waters and using different types of weapons,” Ryzhenko said.

Maritime security sources noted that at least seven explosions have occurred on individual tankers calling at Russian ports since December 2024 at various locations, including the Mediterranean, with Ukraine suspected in each case.

Separately, a Turkish-owned oil tanker damaged off the coast of Senegal last week was hit by four external explosions, its manager said Monday, adding that no injuries or pollution occurred. The Mersin tanker had previously visited a Russian port, and maritime security sources said initial assessments suggested the vessel was targeted with limpet mines, similar to several unconfirmed incidents earlier this year.

A Dakar Port Authority spokesperson said the tanker is now secured and under close supervision, confirming that “a serious incident in the engine room caused a major water ingress.” The spokesperson added that the exact cause of the incident would be disclosed once investigations are complete.

By Tamilla Hasanova