Iran’s capital on edge as worst drought in decades deepens

Tehran’s deepening water crisis has pushed anxiety to a breaking point. Earlier this month, rows of worshippers filled a Tehran mosque, some raising their faces toward the sky and others bowing their heads as they prayed for rain. Their pleas come as the city of roughly 15 million faces a level of water scarcity so severe that Iran’s president has warned residents may eventually need to leave. Yet week after week, the skies remain dry.

In a stark speech, President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that if rain does not fall by December, the government “will be rationed,” and if conditions persist, residents “have to evacuate.” Experts doubt evacuation is realistic, but the president’s words highlight the scale of the emergency, CNN writes. 

The crisis extends well beyond the capital. According to Mohsen B. Mesgaran of the University of California, Davis, about 20 provinces have gone without a “single drop of rain” since the rainy season began in late September.

Reuters reports that nearly 10% of Iran’s dams are now effectively dry. The underlying causes mirror those seen in other drought-stricken regions: decades of overuse, mismanagement, deteriorating infrastructure, and the construction of numerous dams that have disrupted natural water systems. Worsening all of this is climate change, producing hotter, drier years in which shrinking reservoirs never recover.

Iran is no stranger to water shortages, but the crisis has rarely hit Tehran so directly. The main reservoirs supplying the capital are approximately 11% full, according to Tehran’s Provincial Water and Sanitation Authority. The Latyan Dam stands at roughly 9% capacity, exposing a nearly dry riverbed. The Amir Kabir Dam is at only about 8%, Reuters reported. Conditions are even worse in Mashhad, where key reservoirs have fallen to about 3%.

Experts describe Iran’s situation as a decades-in-the-making disaster. Kaveh Madani of the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health calls the country’s condition “water bankruptcy,” comparing Iran’s rivers and wetlands to a depleted checking account and its aquifers to a savings account that is being rapidly drained.

Policies aimed at agricultural self-sufficiency — especially in response to sanctions — have doubled irrigated farmland since 1979, with water-hungry crops like rice dominating production. Agriculture now consumes about 90% of the nation’s water.

Lake Urmia, once one of the world’s largest saltwater lakes, has nearly vanished. While drought has played a role, experts say dams and wells supporting nearby farms have “pushed the system beyond its limits.” Expanding urban populations, water-intensive industries, and decaying infrastructure — which loses an estimated 30% of treated water — have added further strain.

Climate change has intensified these vulnerabilities. Iran is in its sixth year of drought, reaching levels “unprecedented in modern times,” Madani said. According to the World Weather Attribution network, today’s extreme heat and low rainfall would not have been possible without human-caused climate change.

Residents now face reduced water pressure and intermittent dry taps. Mixed government messaging has fueled mistrust and conspiracy theories, including claims that foreign powers are “stealing clouds.” Officials have resorted to cloud seeding, though its effectiveness remains uncertain.

Long-term recovery would require major economic and agricultural reforms — changes likely to be unpopular and economically disruptive. Even if rains arrive, experts warn that nature now imposes limits that quick fixes cannot overcome.

"The water crisis is not only an environmental issue; it is increasingly intertwined with Iran’s social and political future," Amir AghaKouchak noted. 

By Sabina Mammadli