Reuters: Ukraine on brink of demographic collapse

Ukraine is moving toward a demographic catastrophe amid a continuous population decline.

According to the demography institute at Ukraine's National Academy of Sciences, the country’s population was 42 million in February 2022. Over the past three and a half years, the population has declined significantly due to ongoing hostilities, and current estimates put it below 36 million, Reuters reports.

Projections indicate that Ukraine’s population could decline to 25 million by 2051, a trend that is already accelerating.

Ukraine now records both one of the world’s highest mortality rates and lowest birth rates, according to 2024 CIA World Factbook data, with roughly three deaths for every birth.

Government figures show that average male life expectancy has fallen from 65.2 years before the war to 57.3 in 2024. For women, it has dropped from 74.4 to 70.9.

Experts and officials warn that Ukraine will need millions of people to rebuild its devastated economy and to ensure it can defend itself in a post-war environment, should Moscow strike again — a scenario many Ukrainians consider likely.

Kyiv attempted to tackle the crisis last year with a demographic strategy running to 2040. The plan forecast a shortfall of 4.5 million workers over the next decade, with construction, technology and administrative services facing the most acute labour shortages.

The strategy focuses on curbing further emigration, encouraging Ukrainians abroad to return through better housing, infrastructure and education, and bringing in foreign workers if gaps remain.

Officials estimate these measures could lift the population to 34 million by 2040, though they also caution it could decline to 29 million if current trends persist.

By Jeyhun Aghazada