“Russia to let Armenian PM fail on his own” Expert opinion on Caliber.Az

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has announced at a governmental meeting that a division, which must ensure the security of regional and international routes passing through the country, has been established within the National Security Service.

It is obvious that by this action Pashinyan is de facto cancelling the ninth paragraph of the tripartite statement dated November 10, 2020, which contains Armenia’s obligation to ensure transportation routes between the western districts of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and that “transportation routes are controlled by the Border Service of the Russian Federal Security Service”.

What does it mean? Do we see the beginning of a campaign to eliminate Russia’s presence in Armenia? If so, how will the Kremlin react to this? To understand the essence of the issue, Caliber.Az journalist appealed to President of the Russian Institute of the Middle East Yevgeny Satanovsky, who immediately stated that “as for Pashinyan’s actions, it is better to directly ask his curators at the US Department of State”.

“To pay attention to Pashinyan means own disrespect. I am just surprised. This man [Pashinyan] is acting in line with the circumstances. He is trying to find sponsors in Europe now. Let him try. By his actions, Pashinyan will either ruin Armenia’s statehood, sovereignty or bring the statehood to the level of the Turkish province,” Satanovsky said.

The president of the Russian Institute noted that all the Moscow’s proposals to normalise relations with Azerbaijan and on the Karabakh issue, voiced before the 2020 Second Karabakh War, were ignored by Yerevan.

“Baku at that moment was ready to discuss all these points constructively. However, there is a difference between [Azerbaijani President] Ilham Aliyev and Pashinyan - maybe because they graduated from different universities, maybe it is hereditary, I don’t know. I know that [Azerbaijani national leader] Heydar Aliyev was a different man unlike the current leadership of most post-Soviet countries,” he stressed.

“Reasonable proposals were made to Pashinyan to close this topic, but he rejected them. During the entire period after the Second Karabakh War, nothing that was agreed upon, including the Zangezur corridor, was implemented by Yerevan. What can be said now? It is useless to say anything. Nothing will help. Pashinyan is very similar to [Ukrainian President] Volodymyr Zelenskyy, he also appeared when the country’s leadership was corrupted and he turned out to be even much worse than all those who were before him,” Satanovsky said.

He noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not a person who stamps his feet in anger.

“Putin never stamps his feet in anger. He has several principles. Firstly, his words are always backed up by deeds, and secondly, Putin never overthrows anyone. As a result, we see Zelenskyy in Ukraine and Pashinyan in Armenia. Moscow will react only if the situation exacerbates, for example, Armenia joins NATO, Russian troops at the 102nd base are replaced by the US ones, a big escalation begins. By the way, I believe in all this. Such miracles can happen. Only then will Moscow react. It is unlikely to react now. I think that Pashinyan will fail on his own and no one knows how seriously,” Satanovsky added.