Russia, Ukraine's war of drones is escalating Analysis by Newsweek

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has pushed drone warfare into the spotlight, reshaping the future of modern warfare as both sides forge ahead with trying to get the upper hand in the air.

The drone war was "very much escalating," according to Steve Wright, senior research fellow in avionics and aircraft systems at the University of the West of England, U.K. Drones are now fully integrated into modern military doctrine, and will only become more present on the battlefield, he told Newsweek on July 4.

But it is not just the technology itself that is progressing at "lightning pace," Wright said. It is also Kyiv's and Moscow's ability to get their hands on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and to use them to their advantage.

Drones are constantly hitting the headlines. On Tuesday, Moscow accused Kyiv of launching five drones, or UAVs, at the Russian capital.

Four of the drones were destroyed by Russian air defence systems, the Russian Defense Ministry said, adding the fifth was "suppressed by electronic warfare."

Vnukovo airport, one of Moscow's major hubs, saw flights disrupted in the early hours of the morning local time, state media reported. It resumed operating at around 8 a.m. Moscow time, according to state news agency Tass, adding that 14 flights had been diverted. No one was injured, and there was no damage to Russian infrastructure, the ministry said.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, said Kyiv had attempted to "attack the area where civilian infrastructure facilities are located, including the airport," adding this was "another act of terrorism."

"Considering that [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy is committing these terrorist attacks with weapons supplied by the West or purchased with Western funds, this is international terrorism," she wrote on Telegram.

But Ukraine has not claimed responsibility, and it is not clear who has been responsible for the UAV strikes at the heart of Russia's government. However, Andriy Yusov, a spokesperson for Ukraine's military intelligence agency, said Kyiv's authorities "traditionally do not comment" on incidents in Moscow, before adding: "But it happens."

"If, for example, the Russian 45th special forces brigade is engaged in sabotage in the Ukrainian rear, then this means that something can fly in Moscow," Yusov told Ukrainian television on Tuesday. "It happens."

The Kremlin has previously accused Ukraine of targeting the Russian capital with UAVs. In late May, the Kremlin vowed it would take the "harshest possible measures" after it said eight drones targeted Moscow. Russian military bloggers claimed up to 30 drones were launched at the capital, although this was not independently verified.

It was the first time Moscow had been targeted by drones since the outbreak of all-out war in Ukraine in February 2022.

But the Ukraine war is showcasing the importance of drones in modern-day conflict, playing out in the headlines almost daily. Drones "are the super weapon here," Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine's minister of internal affairs, told Newsweek in February.

"This war is a war of drones," he added. Ukraine has poured time and money into cultivating its "drone army," but it is not the only one. The Ukrainian military has frequently reported waves of drone strikes by Iranian-made Shahed drones, also known as suicide or "kamikaze" UAVs, raining down on Ukrainian infrastructure targets.

On the morning of July 4, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces said Moscow had "launched yet another attack using Iranian Shahed combat UAVs."

The Kremlin launched 22 Shahed drones against "civilian infrastructure" in the northeastern Sumy, eastern Donetsk and southern Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine on July 3, the General Staff said in an operational update. Ukraine's air defenses intercepted 16 of the drones, the military added.

Drone technology "is escalating fairly rapidly," Wright said on July 4. "Compared to the level of development of Cold War weapons, it's lightning pace."

But beyond this, both Russia and Ukraine's ability to get hold of—and successfully operate—these drones is accelerating, too, he said.

"Everything has transformed just in the last five years," he added.

Ukraine has received drones from its Western backers, including a number of various types from the US in Washington's military aid packages.

Some reports, including from the British Defence Ministry, had suggested Moscow could run out of supplies of Shahed-131 and larger -136 drones, and that Russia's domestic production of military drones cannot keep up with demand.

But Russia will not find itself unable to use drones, Wright said, and Ukraine needs to have a way to lower the price of intercepting them. The cost of sending in Shahed drones, with a price tag of tens of thousands of dollars, is far less than the cost of using expensive air defence systems to intercept such UAVS.