China and US: the return of bipolarity Foreign Affairs analysis

Foreign Affairs’ recent analysis makes a bold claim: the global balance of power has shifted decisively into bipolarity, with the United States and China emerging as the only true superpowers in the modern world. The piece, rooted in quantitative research and historical comparison, argues that China today is not just rising—it already surpasses the Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War in both economic and military potential, making the U.S.-China rivalry the defining axis of twenty-first-century geopolitics.

The article begins with a reminder of why great powers matter. They shape the rules of the international system, intervene in other nations’ politics, and, when in competition, drive global tension and conflict. Beyond this, the number of great powers—unipolar, bipolar, or multipolar—also affects stability. While unipolarity in the post-Cold War era allowed the U.S. to act freely, bipolarity historically has generated intense competition, sphere-building, and high-stakes security dilemmas. Multipolarity, in contrast, carries the risk of miscalculated alliances, making the global system volatile and prone to conflict.

The author introduces a novel methodology to measure great-power status. Using historical data on GDP, military expenditure, and composite metrics such as GDP multiplied by GDP per capita, the study identifies a quantitative threshold for great powers. The findings are striking: China’s economy today exceeds the Soviet Union’s Cold War-era power, both in absolute terms and relative to the leading state (the United States). While China’s military spending lags behind, the low share of GDP devoted to defence suggests ample capacity to expand. The piece stresses that China does not need to match U.S. power exactly to be a superpower, a crucial insight that reframes debates over “catching up” versus relative competitiveness.

Middle powers, including India, Germany, Japan, and Brazil, are growing economically and militarily, yet they remain below the threshold for true great-power status. Russia, despite its assertive foreign policy, falls short as well, unable to secure regional dominance over Ukraine or challenge Western Europe decisively. Thus, the article concludes, the world is effectively bipolar, not multipolar, with China and the United States dominating the global landscape.

The practical implications of this bipolarity are already apparent. Competition spans trade, technology, finance, global governance, and military influence. The U.S. seeks to secure its “backyard” in Latin America, countering China’s growing influence in strategic regions, while China projects a Monroe Doctrine–style influence in East Asia, pressuring neighbours economically and politically to limit U.S. presence. Small and medium powers increasingly face constrained choices, forced to align with one superpower or the other.

Overall, the article combines rigorous quantitative analysis with geopolitical insight to argue that the U.S.-China rivalry will define international relations for decades. By demonstrating China’s superpower status and situating it within a historical framework, the piece reframes conventional debates about rising powers, emphasising that the era of unipolarity is over, and the stakes of bipolar competition are global, immediate, and unavoidable.

By Vugar Khalilov