"Staging underhand provocations is all Armenia can do" Experts comment on clashes near Dygh village

Armenia's latest armed provocation on the border with Azerbaijan, which left three of our soldiers dead, clearly showed that Yerevan is not thinking about a peaceful settlement. The Armenian authorities are, of course, ostentatiously demonstrating their eagerness to negotiate, but the facts testify to the contrary - they were planning an armed attack in a considered and substantial way, and, judging by the number of vehicles involved, were very ambitious. And as always, having been thoroughly kicked in the guts and licking their wounds, the Armenians nevertheless did not fail to shift the responsibility for the incident on Azerbaijan, publishing invented facts and obscure videos. And they paid dearly for their new adventure with the deaths of at least four of their soldiers, apart from the large number of those wounded.

However, no matter how hard Yerevan tries to persuade the world community that Azerbaijan instigated the incident on the border, foreign experts and analysts clearly see "the Armenian trace" in these arguments full of holes that were probably invented by Iranian or French handlers. However, they all should take very seriously an unambiguous warning from the head of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry Jeyhun Bayramov: "If Armenia's provocations continue, our response will be very heavy for them. The peace process has no alternative."

The Russian expert on interethnic conflicts and member of the Russian Union of Journalists Yevgeny Mikhailov is confident that Azerbaijan will finally stop persuading Armenia and finally end the conflict militarily, as he told Caliber.Az.

"The provocations have been repelled and retaliated with dignity and I think that Azerbaijan, in view of the constantly renewed Armenian aggression, will probably soon stop persuading Yerevan and will decide to end the conflict militarily. Again, we are talking about a conditional border, and it is conditional because Yerevan has not fulfilled its commitments made at the signing of the Trilateral Statement of November 10, 2020. It has not fulfilled the promises made to Russia and Azerbaijan at a time when the frightened Pashinyan assumed the responsibility of the losing side," Mikhailov said.

He argues that all these years many expected Azerbaijan to finally find the long-awaited peace, and wait till the delimitation and demarcation of the borders, but this did not happen. Moreover, third players - France, the EU, and the US - have entered the game, who are motivated not by an interest in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, but by a desire to oust Russia from the region.

"And now Armenia, in my opinion, pressured by its partners, will only intensify provocations against both Azerbaijani military and Russian peacekeepers, the Russian base in Gyumri. I think this situation can hardly be resolved without conflict and direct hostilities. The only thing that Yerevan can do is to stage underhand provocations, but it is not ready for a direct confrontation.

I would not be surprised if the so-called European observers, in support of their Armenian friends, say now that Azerbaijan has violated the ceasefire. Moreover, all these 'observers', as we can see from the example of same Ukraine, as a rule, do not notice anything terrible in the actions of those from whose side they are observing," the Russian expert stressed.

Furthermore, according to Mikhailov, the international community will not react in any way to Armenia's profanations.

"Both Russia and Azerbaijan have already faced this. Therefore Baku should finally solve this Armenian issue in close cooperation with Russia and Türkiye. To solve it not in the sense of conquering Armenia, but to close the issue de jure with all the territories, which belong to Azerbaijan. Diplomatic efforts are, alas, futile. Perhaps they will become promising when everyone will unanimously points out Yerevan's place and use all levers of influence to have a new leader in Armenia because Pashinyan has disappointed almost everyone. But it is quite clear and obvious that Azerbaijan will adequately respond to all such provocations since it has a strong army and will not tolerate such provocations from the losing country indefinitely; it is worth considering in Armenia," Mikhailov believes.

Israeli political scientist and journalist Roman Gurevich in turn said he was deeply saddened by the events on the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

"I would like to express my condolences to the families of the martyrs and wish recovery to all those wounded in the fighting. It is clear that there are forces not at all interested in stabilising and resolving the situation in the region. Let us look at who is not interested in peace. Azerbaijan, which won the 44-day war and has a clear military advantage, is by no means interested in an escalation of the conflict. Baku seeks to stabilize the situation in the region, sign a peace agreement and engage Armenia in joint economic projects," Gurevich said.

At first glance, any destabilization and military aggravation is extremely disadvantageous for Armenia: the country is in a dire economic situation, and in fact, it has nothing to fight with anyone. However, everything is ambiguous...

"Prime Minister Pashinyan is dodging as he seems to understand the benefits of signing a peace treaty, but he is also under pressure from the powerful Armenian lobby, the Armenian diaspora, which is interested in seeing the conflict continue and that there will be provocations, that people will die. Extremist forces in Armenia itself want this, as do the remnants of Armenian armed formations in the Russian peacekeeping zone. This, of course, must also be taken into account. However, we can notice that there is even more pressure now, a toxic influence on Armenia from Tehran, which is now pursuing the most destructive policy against Azerbaijan. And in this case, in my opinion, Iran is using Armenia as a tool to destabilize the situation in the region. I am sure that without the orders of their masters in Tehran, Armenians would not have dared to provoke Azerbaijan so much," Gurevich summed up.