“Super El Niño” could cause 451,000 heat-related deaths

This year’s “Super El Niño,” an exceptionally strong warming of Pacific Ocean waters, could cause an estimated 451,000 deaths from extreme heat during the first nine months of the climate event, according to a new report by the Climate Impact Lab.

The researchers warned that the effects of the potentially strongest El Niño on record will extend beyond heat, increasing the risks of drought, wildfires and flooding as temperatures rise and rainfall patterns shift.

The projected heat deaths are expected to be concentrated overwhelmingly in the Global South. Over the next six months, the report estimates 66,800 additional heat-related deaths across Africa’s Sahel, including 31,400 in Nigeria, 17,500 in Sudan, 10,000 in Niger and 8,000 in Chad.

Southeast Asia could see 19,400 additional deaths in the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, while Indonesia is projected to record another 19,300 deaths. India could see 15,800 additional deaths and Brazil 13,300.

“We now can estimate that 451,000 people may die in the coming months due to El Niño,” said Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and professor at the University of Chicago.

The report said measures such as early warning systems, cooling centres and protections for outdoor workers could help prevent tens of thousands of deaths if targeted at the most vulnerable regions.

The researchers also described this year’s El Niño as a “postcard from our future”, arguing that it provides a glimpse of temperatures that climate change could bring about two decades from now without greater investment in adaptation.

By Sabina Mammadli