Tehran not to go to war with Azerbaijan, regime should be saved Lana Ravandi-Fadai on peculiarities of Iranian politics

Iran continues to aggravate relations with Azerbaijan. These are military threats, outrage at statements made by [Azerbaijani Foreign Minister] Jeyhun Bayramov during his visit to Israel, and absurd demands to compensate for the moral damage done to the country's image by allegedly untrustworthy Azerbaijani media. The latter sounds at least amusing, and this is not the first time that Tehran's intimidating rhetoric has left perplexed and, frankly, sceptical of their qualifications. Well, what can we do, it's hard to intimidate us, and we have experience in how to respond to threats. But the regime of the mullahs has become something excessively hysterical in its words and actions. Apparently, he is very much afraid of the imminent end of his reign.

Nevertheless, so far the reaction of Azerbaijan's official bodies to the Iranian regime attacks is very correct, although quite harsh. Thus, a statement by the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry's press secretary in response to the accusations voiced on behalf of the Iranian Foreign Ministry by press secretary Nasser Kanani, said: "...Threats against Azerbaijan have recently been heard from Iranian territory, and provocations are allowed. Iranian military exercises along Azerbaijan's borders, military flights over the border, anti-Azerbaijani statements by Iranian officials... a terrorist attack against the Azerbaijani embassy in Iran, and preliminary results of an investigation into a terrorist attack against Milli Majlis deputy Fazil Mustafa are all examples pointing to Iran.

...We strongly condemn Press Secretary Nasser Kanani's statement. This statement is another step towards the crisis in Azerbaijani-Iranian relations. These Iranian threats cannot intimidate Azerbaijan in any way. Despite Iran's military support for Armenia, the Azerbaijani army defeated the occupying Armenian army in 2020. Any aggression or provocation against Azerbaijan will be firmly suppressed."

Why is Iran escalating tensions with Azerbaijan so forcefully? What is it trying to achieve? In view of the difficult situation in the country, isn't this an attempt to somehow switch Iranian society to an external agenda, or is Tehran really seeing threats because of the "Zionist influence" on Baku?

Lana Ravandi-Fadai, Candidate of Historical Sciences, Head of the Oriental Cultural Centre, senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Associate Professor of RSUH's Department of Modern East and Africa, stated in an interview with Caliber.Az that at first glance, everything is contrary to logic – Shi'i Iran actively supports Armenia, instead of supporting Azerbaijan with its predominantly Shi'i population. But one of the reasons for this lies precisely in the fact that Iran is very afraid of the growth of national consciousness among the more than 20 million Azerbaijani population of the country.

"The number of Azerbaijanis living on Iranian territory is difficult to calculate, and the country's leadership appears unwilling to address the issue, because some sources claim 13-15 million, while others claim all 50 million. I'm starting with a guess of 25 million. Iran fears not only ethnic Azerbaijanis but also the strengthening of secular Azerbaijan in general, as well as [its] cooperation with Israel. And, as you are aware, Israel is an existential threat to Iran," the political scientist points out.



At the same time, Ravandi-Fadai believes that today's Iran is ready to conclude various trade and economic deals with the United States and other Western countries, which indicates the strengthening of the pragmatic component in the country's policy.

"When discussing Iran's foreign policy, it is important to remember that different political views on certain political decisions exist in Iran, which are expressed by various political factions: moderate conservatives and radical conservatives, centrist pragmatists and reformers. The latter, on the other hand, personifies the country's liberal forces. But, in any case, the supreme leader, who has traditionally taken a conservative and anti-Western stance, has the final say in foreign policy," the expert remarked.

Despite its formal support for Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, Iran did not assist it during the 44-day war, and after the war, Iran began to focus more and more on Armenia. Relations between the two countries have deteriorated further following Iran's military manoeuvres on the border with Azerbaijan in October 2022, as well as the murder of an Azerbaijani embassy employee in Tehran, she said.

Why is this happening, and why are there so many contradictions between two neighbouring, Muslim countries? According to Ravandi-Fadai, the motivation for all of this is still Iran's zealous reaction to Azerbaijan's successes, as well as its categorical refusal to allow it to take the lead in the region. According to the political scientist, Tehran operates on a linear algorithm, with each action producing its own reaction. This is true, for example, of military exercises: in response to the "Three Brothers" manoeuvres, which included Azerbaijani, Turkish, and Pakistani servicemen, Iran held military exercises almost on the border with Azerbaijan. Ravandi-Fadai is certain that the competitive factor is present.

According to her, Iran sees no danger in Armenia establishing ties with Europe, but the deepening of Baku's relations with Israel and Turkey in Tehran tends to be viewed as a challenge, an alarm signal about the desire to reduce Iran's influence in the East and around the world. And, because Israel is an enemy of Iran and is not regarded as a subject of politics or international law by Tehran, all countries cooperating with Tel Aviv are also on Tehran's blacklist.

"Ethnic Azerbaijanis are Iran's largest national minority, and they are, of course, the catalyst for Tehran's toxic policy toward Azerbaijan. Of course, there are Iranian Azerbaijanis who are well integrated into the regime's structure, are loyal to it, and hold prominent positions in politics, economics, and religious structures, but the problem persists.

The Iranian position on the Zangazur corridor is also a kind of trigger that aggravates relations between the two countries because Tehran believes that this corridor will cut off its routes to Europe via Armenia, resulting in an increase in Turkey's regional influence. As a result, forces of NATO, an organisation that is regarded as Tehran's main adversary, will penetrate the region. However, there is a serious deterioration of the situation in the country right now, with prolonged unrest and protests by Iranian society, and I do not believe that the current Baku-Tehran confrontation will escalate into a full-fledged war between the two countries. Iran is too preoccupied with internal issues, and the authorities' primary focus today will be on saving the regime," Ravandi-Fadai concluded.