The Economist: Iran war leaves Ukraine facing critical shortage of interceptors

Ukraine is facing an acute shortage of Patriot PAC-3 interceptors, its most effective available defence against ballistic missiles, after the US war against Iran further depleted American stocks, The Economist writes.

According to the analysis, Ukraine’s supply of PAC-3 interceptors is now almost exhausted, while the United States is also facing depleted Patriot stocks. With replacement supplies limited, countries are reluctant to transfer additional interceptors from their own inventories.

Alternative systems are expected to provide some relief, but not in the short term. Ukraine is due to receive several older French-Italian SAMP/T air-defence batteries later this year, equipped with Aster interceptors. Eight newer SAMP/T NG systems are expected to follow next year.

The SAMP/T NG features an upgraded radar designed to improve terminal guidance and is capable of engaging multiple manoeuvring ballistic missiles, including Russia’s Iskander-M. Its Aster interceptor uses a proximity warhead rather than the Patriot PAC-3's “hit-to-kill” approach.

French military sources cited by The Economist claim the Aster can outperform the Patriot in some areas. At less than half the roughly $7 million price of the latest export version of the PAC-3, it could also offer a cheaper alternative.

However, missile analyst Fabian Hoffman cautions that the SAMP/T NG has yet to be proven in combat.

European missile manufacturer MBDA is increasing Aster production, but is not expected to reach 300 interceptors annually until 2028. Ukraine could potentially receive a licence to produce Aster missiles domestically, although establishing production would take time.

MBDA is also preparing to manufacture the less capable PAC-2 interceptor in Germany under licence, with production expected to reach around 200 missiles a year.

By Sabina Mammadli