The Guardian: UK faces gas supply crunch in 2030s

Britain risks running short of gas in the 2030s despite expanding clean energy sources unless the government takes “unprecedented” action to protect supplies, according to an official assessment.

The government is considering measures including financial support for gas storage facilities and pipeline operators after a consultation warned that a “high stress scenario” could leave homes and businesses without gas within the next decade, The Guardian writes.

Most respondents said the industry was unlikely to prepare adequately for “low probability, high-impact events” that could cause supplies to run dry as North Sea reserves decline.

Three-quarters of respondents agreed with a warning issued last year by the National Energy System Operator that an “emerging risk to gas supply security” could mean homes and businesses are left without gas during a prolonged period of cold weather by 2030.

Michael Shanks, the energy minister, said: “Any form of government intervention or investment in the gas market would be unprecedented and cannot be a decision we take lightly.”

Possible measures include financial support for owners of gas storage facilities and pipeline operators to make it economically viable to upgrade and maintain infrastructure in the coming decades.

Shanks said Britain would continue to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels by expanding clean energy, but added: “However, we recognise that this transition will not happen overnight; the gas system will still play an important role in our energy system for decades to come.”

“We have a responsibility to the millions of households that will be heated by gas for years ahead, the industries that rely on it for essential production, and the power system in which gas continues to play a key role,” he added.

The government’s renewed focus on gas security comes as it prepares to deliver a decision on the future of two controversial North Sea oil and gasfield proposals at the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields.

Prime Minister has said he would take a “pragmatic” approach to oil and gas drilling in the North Sea, saying last month: “There is a resource there. When people are struggling, we can’t ignore that.”

Britain relied on gas for more than a third of its energy consumption last year, according to government figures. Gas use is expected to fall by just over three-quarters by 2050 under guidance from the Climate Change Committee, but domestic supplies are expected to decline faster.

The government expects North Sea oil and gas production, which has been declining for 25 years, to fall by about 5% a year, increasing concerns over future gas security.

The National Energy System Operator’s first official gas supply assessment warned that supply shortfalls could occur on colder-than-usual days even as Britain shifts away from gas towards clean energy. The risks could be greater if cold weather coincides with low European storage levels or an unexpected outage at a gas import terminal or pipeline.

North Sea fields supplied almost half of the gas used by British homes and businesses over the past five years, while Norway provided just over a third. Imports from the United States and the Middle East by tanker accounted for a fifth, while 1% came by pipeline from continental Europe.

In a statement, Shanks said: “Gas will continue to play a key role in our energy system as we transition to clean, homegrown energy. We are delivering a gas system that is fit for the future, maintaining secure supplies, ensuring value for money for consumers, and giving the sector the certainty it needs to invest in Britain’s energy.”

By Aghakazim Guliyev