The Middle East space race and the future of regional disputes Opinion by Elia Preto Martini

This project is the latest UAE's effort to become a technological superpower in space exploration activities. The government has the most ambitious space program in the Middle East that traces back 15 years. It received further momentum after the creation of the UAE Space Agency in 2014 and the adoption of a plan to send a lunar rover to the moon in 2024.

In 2021, the tiny Arab country saw success with its "Hope Probe" mission to obtain a complete view of Mars' atmosphere. Engineers and scientists from the U.S. collaborated on the project while Japan was the launching base of the spacecraft. Its long-term objective is establishing the first inhabitable human colony on Mars by 2117.

Bin Rashid remarked, "The new project is a seed we plant today, and we expect future generations to reap the benefits. The landing of people on other planets has been a longtime dream for humans. We aim for the UAE to spearhead international efforts to make this dream a reality."

Until the beginning of the last decade, Israel led in the Middle East space race. Its agency was founded in 1983, replacing the National Committee for Space Research, a university-based project from Tel Aviv University. Over the years, it has installed a series of observation and communication satellites and developed innovative space technologies.

Iran's interest in space exploration dates back to 1998, when it signed an agreement with China and Russia to build and launch several satellites. Meanwhile, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—an elite unit of the Iranian Armed Forces—has secretly developed a parallel space program. In 2020, IRGC succeeded in launching its first military satellite, Noor-1, into orbit, for military and civilian purposes.

Also, Saudi Arabia has been a leader of space initiatives in the Arab World. In 1976, the country established the multinational satellite communications company Arabsat, which involves 21 member-states of the Arab League and operates from Riyadh. After the rise of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia emphasized the role of space explorations within the national development strategy Saudi Vision 2030.

Historically, the space race has deep-rooted geopolitical implications. In the post-World War II period, the U.S. and the Soviet Union competed for space control to demonstrate the superiority of their economic and political systems. Developing space technologies is, in fact, both a hard- and a soft-power tool, mainly used to increase national pride and project a strong image abroad. Authoritarian countries often use their achievements to whitewash governance flaws and human rights abuses.

From an economic perspective, in the Middle East, space programs are usually embedded in the diversification plans adopted to overcome the rentier state economic model, such as the already mentioned Saudi Vision 2030 or Abu Dhabi Economic Vision 2030. Technological advances in this area boost the development of tools and know-how used in other sectors, such as what occurred with past research that developed the television, cell phone camera, and computer mouse.

From a military perspective, the space race created terrific opportunities for the actors involved in regional disputes. For example, Iran has rapidly developed its space capabilities, attracting the concerns of many countries. In 2015, the Trump administration accused Teheran of violating a 2015 UN Security Council resolution to abstain from activities related to missiles carrying nuclear weapons, an allegation firmly denied by the Islamic Republic.

Recently, Moscow reached a bilateral agreement on space cooperation with Teheran and then launched an Iranian satellite. This fact alarmed U.S. officials, who have deemed this collaboration a threat to the Middle East's stability and the ongoing Ukraine war. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi stated in early January 2023, "Iran's space achievements prove the failure of U.S. sanctions." Even in space programs, force projection blends with economic and diplomatic aspects.

There's increasing evidence that space will be crucial in the struggle for military dominance in the Middle East. According to historian Jörg Matthias Determann, "The Emirati probe is unarmed. However, it is not far-fetched to wonder if Middle Eastern countries might follow the United States in adding space forces to their service branches. Dual-use technology, like the Cold War space race rockets between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, can serve both peaceful and military aims." If this happens, space technologies may further exacerbate the Middle East conflicts, creating unpredictable long-term consequences.