Trading Economics forecasts economic growth in 2024

Trading Economics has released forecasts for key macroeconomic indicators in Azerbaijan, providing insights into the anticipated economic performance of the country.

Trading Economics predicts that economic growth in Azerbaijan will experience fluctuations throughout 2024, APA reports.

In the second quarter of the year, the forecast suggests a notable increase, with economic growth expected to reach 3.4%. However, by the last quarter of 2024, this growth is projected to decrease to 1.5%.

Additionally, Trading Economics has forecasted the average annual inflation rate for Azerbaijan in 2024. The forecast indicates an average annual inflation rate of 5% for the year.

According to the portal, Trading Economics predicts the unemployment rate in Azerbaijan to hover around 5.8% throughout the current year, providing valuable insights into the labour market dynamics.

It's worth noting the disparity in GDP growth expectations among different institutions. While Trading Economics forecasts economic growth rates of 3.4% in the second quarter and 1.5% in the last quarter of 2024, the Ministry of Finance holds a more conservative outlook. The Ministry expects real GDP growth to reach 2.4% for the year.

In contrast, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan offers a slightly more optimistic forecast, with expectations ranging between 3% to 3.5% for the overall real GDP growth in 2024.

According to forecasts from Trading Economics, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) is poised to enact a reduction of the discount rate by 0.5% on March 28. This prediction aligns with the information provided by APA-Economics, which reports that the CBA's Board of Directors is expected to announce a decision to decrease the interest rate from 7.75% to 7.25%.

Furthermore, Trading Economics anticipates that the CBA will continue its monetary policy adjustments throughout the year. It is projected that the discount rate will be reduced to 7% in the second quarter of 2024, followed by an additional decrease to 6.5% in the last quarter.

This expected move by the CBA follows a series of recent discount rate reductions. In its most recent decision on January 31 of this year, the CBA lowered the discount rate from 8% to 7.75%. Moreover, adjustments were made to the interest corridor, with the lower limit decreased from 6.5% to 6.25%, and the upper limit reduced from 9% to 8.75%.