Tropics face longer climate crisis as poorer regions wait for relief

The world’s poorest regions could remain disproportionately affected by global warming for decades even after greenhouse gas emissions reach net zero, according to new research by Australian climate scientists.

The study, published in Environmental Research Letters, found that tropical regions have experienced greater warming relative to historic levels than higher-latitude areas, including wealthier parts of Europe and North America, The Guardian writes. 

Researchers from the University of Melbourne examined three sets of climate modelling experiments projecting temperature changes under a net-zero emissions scenario and compared the results with countries’ gross domestic product.

“If we follow a path that is close to net zero, then the inequality we see in present day warming persists indefinitely,” said Dr Andrew King, who led the research.

“The wealthier countries that have caused more of the problem are not those that are the most exposed, even beyond net zero. The regions that have not caused the warming are those that experience the most warming.”

The researchers said the situation could take “many decades to begin to reverse” even if the world went beyond net zero by removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

King said the long-term impact would depend heavily on how much greenhouse gas was emitted before net zero was reached.

“Even when we get to net zero, we have still emitted an enormous amount of carbon into the atmosphere and its effects will continue for centuries. We can’t easily undo all that damage,” he said. “Getting to net zero sooner means we are less likely to have that long-term warming after net zero. We need to get to net zero sooner to limit that inequality.”

Tropical ecosystems, including some coral reefs, could remain particularly vulnerable because many evolved within narrower temperature ranges than ecosystems at higher latitudes, King said.

The findings were released alongside a separate report examining another consequence of the climate crisis: the growing risk of statelessness.

The report, commissioned by the UN refugee agency and released with the University of Melbourne’s Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, called for international support to maintain “the continuity of statehood” for countries facing severe climate damage.

Pacific island nations losing territory to rising sea levels were among those identified as being at risk.

The UN refugee agency estimates that about 4.5 million people are currently stateless, while acknowledging that the actual number is likely considerably higher because stateless people are “invisible to official statistics”.

The report warned that climate-related disasters, including fires, floods and rising seas, could increase displacement and create new risks of statelessness.

University of Melbourne Associate Professor Radha Govil, a co-author of the report, said there was a link between regions experiencing severe climate impacts and those affected by statelessness.

The report recommended helping countries digitise citizenship records and ensuring children can obtain citizenship if they are left without parents following a disaster.

“The recommendations we have set out are absolutely doable,” Govil said. “They can stave of this risk of statelessness and get ahead of this problem.”

By Sabina Mammadli