Trump’s Asia tour: balancing security, uncertainty, bilateral diplomacy

Trump’s visit showcased his hallmark “America First” approach: assertive, highly personalised, and focused on direct engagement with individual states rather than patient multilateral negotiation. Asian leaders capitalised on the opportunity to curry Washington’s favour, yet the tour underscored the unpredictability of US commitments in the region, according to a recent analysis by Chatham House.

While Trump’s meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea temporarily stabilised US–China relations, underlying tensions remain unresolved, leaving the Indo-Pacific caught between cooperation and competition.

A key strategic aim of the US, highlighted during the tour, is encouraging allies to shoulder more of their defence burden. South Korea’s pledge to increase defence spending by 8.2 per cent in 2026, and Japan’s commitment under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to reach 2 per cent of GDP, reflect the success of Trump’s approach. However, rapid military build-ups carry risks: while they may deter China, they could inadvertently bolster Beijing’s claim to regional stability, creating a complex balancing act for US planners.

Trump’s engagement in multilateral forums was minimal. At the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, he presided over a tentative peace declaration between Thailand and Cambodia but departed before the broader summit, ceding diplomatic space to Chinese Premier Li Qiang. At the APEC summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, he met Xi to announce a trade war truce, largely bypassing the multilateral agenda. These actions underscore the administration’s preference for bilateral deals over comprehensive regional coordination.

Defence diplomacy remained central. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth signed a 10-year framework agreement with India, and Trump endorsed South Korea’s procurement of US-built nuclear-powered submarines. The strategy aims to bolster deterrence through allies while retaining US leverage over regional security outcomes. Yet the absence of a NATO-like alliance in Asia complicates this approach, as differing threat perceptions among partners—coupled with historical tensions, such as potential diplomatic fallout from Takaichi’s previous visits to the Yasukuni shrine—could undermine collective cohesion.

Looking ahead, the forthcoming US National Defence Strategy (NDS) may either reduce or heighten uncertainty. Analysts anticipate an emphasis on homeland defence and Western Hemisphere priorities, potentially diverting focus from Asia. Whether the US can convert short-term gains into durable trust remains uncertain, especially as China continues to strengthen its economic and diplomatic standing in Southeast Asia in contrast to US tariff-driven policies.

Ultimately, Chatham House analysis underscores that Trump’s Asia tour illustrates both the promise and pitfalls of a highly personalised, bilateral-focused US strategy. While immediate objectives—such as increased ally defence spending and temporary tension management with China—appear successful, sustaining long-term influence will require careful navigation of historical sensitivities, disparate threat perceptions, and the absence of a binding multilateral security framework.

By Vugar Khalilov