Trump's plan: US withdrawal from Syria in exchange for Türkiye-Israel reconciliation Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

U.S. President Donald Trump has put forward a plan to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria, contingent on Türkiye normalising diplomatic relations with Israel. According to Israeli newspaper Maariv, which cites its sources, Trump is actively coordinating the troop withdrawal with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

This development raises a key question: Will Ankara agree to Washington's proposal? To shed light on the matter, the correspondent of Caliber.Az reached out to political analysts from both Türkiye and Israel.

According to Israeli expert, political science candidate, and editor of Aziznews.com, Yuri Bocharov, Donald Trump has crafted an image of a strong politician and businessman capable of tackling global challenges. However, this persona was primarily constructed during his election campaign, when he could make bold statements without immediate consequences. Now, as he leads the country and faces the reality of international affairs, Bocharov suggests that Trump must demonstrate greater consistency in his actions.

"As we can see, Trump's recent statements, such as those regarding the resettlement of Palestinians or the ban on Hamas activities in the Gaza Strip after a peace agreement, are more likely an attempt to gauge the reactions of all players in the Middle East to his potential actions in the region.

It’s unlikely that, from a military standpoint, the U.S. will withdraw its troops from Syria, let alone dismantle its intelligence base located on the border with Jordan. However, demonstratively, he could send a couple of hundred soldiers on a plane back to the U.S. under the flash of movie cameras. But no more than that," the political analyst noted.

In his opinion, Erdogan also has grand plans for Syria, as he recently stated at one of his rallies that it’s time to reconsider the terms of the end of World War I and return Türkiye its territories.

"However, the new Syrian leadership has now started to court Saudi Arabia, with which it shares a closer spirit and ideology. In principle, Erdogan has stated that if Israel resolves the Palestinian issue justly, and especially stops the war in the Gaza Strip, then there will be something to discuss. Similarly, in response to Trump's proposal to settle part of the Gaza Strip refugees on their territory with substantial funding, the leadership of Jordan and Egypt reacted. All declare that the Palestinian issue must be resolved justly and on Palestinian soil, but these are just words—the main actions will take place behind the scenes. Just like the ongoing negotiations with Hamas over hostages behind the scenes today.

At the same time, Israel has its own position on both the Gaza Strip and the situation in Lebanon and even Syria. Moreover, Israel is governed by an ultranationalist government, some of whose members are not at all inclined toward any negotiation process without taking into account their ideological goals. So, events in this region will unfold for a long time, constantly changing almost every day," noted Yuri Bocharov.

According to Turkish political analyst Kerim Has, Erdogan is one of the key players with whom Trump will have to coordinate the plan for withdrawing U.S. troops from Syria. As for Trump's condition regarding the restoration of relations with Israel, the political analyst points out one important nuance.

"The thing is, Türkiye's relations with Israel have not been severed, so they don't need to be restored. Yes, there is tension in the rhetoric, and there have been diplomatic and political clashes in the relationship between Ankara and Tel Aviv. But despite all this, in reality, in my opinion, Erdogan and Turkish politics have been advancing Israel's interests in the region for many years. Essentially, following Vladimir Putin's famous words: 'Flies separate from cutlets,' meaning rhetoric is one thing, while real actions are quite another. I would emphasize again that, if you look deeply, it becomes clear that despite the harsh anti-Israeli statements, Erdogan, especially in the last decade and a half, has done a lot for Israel, starting with events in Syria, as well as Ankara's actions in other countries. All of this has benefited the state of Israel. Let's start with the fact that Syria has historically always been one of Israel's key adversaries, but now we see that Syria is no longer a threat to Tel Aviv.

It is noteworthy that the Syrian opposition, which has come to power, has no issues with Israel, and they have even stated this. This is despite the fact that Israel has essentially occupied some southern regions of Syria. The new Syrian authorities expelled pro-Iranian forces from Syria, and it is clear that this largely happened due to the efforts of the Turkish government.

Therefore, I believe Israel should thank Erdogan for this very important contribution to ensuring Israel's security. And let’s not forget that Azerbaijani oil is continuously supplied through Turkish territory, and some of it even reaches Israel. So, the Turkish leadership plays a key role in ensuring Israel's energy security," the political analyst noted.

In his opinion, it can be observed that despite Erdogan's harsh statements against Israel, Ankara does not take any steps in this direction without considering Azerbaijan-Israel relations.

"In particular, Türkiye could have issued an ultimatum to Israel regarding one of its statements on Gaza, or even tried to cause trouble for Israel by blocking Azerbaijani oil supplies, for instance, by claiming, as is often done in large-scale politics, a 'pipeline accident,' or at least hinted at it. But such manoeuvres have not occurred.

As for economic policy, things are also quite different from what they seem at first glance. Despite the sanctions announced against Israel, Türkiye not only did not suspend trade with Israel, but actually increased it. Now, this trade happens through third countries. It is no coincidence that exports to Palestine from Türkiye have increased at least five to six times in the last year and a half. And it’s hard to believe that all Palestinians suddenly became oligarchs and started buying Turkish goods in bulk.

Therefore, I think Erdogan is simply the number one person for Israel’s interests.

There are other examples as well. The story with the Turkish ship Mavi Marmara shows that Israel-Türkiye relations have already gone through downturns and upswings, and Erdogan can skillfully regulate such fluctuations, resuming diplomatic relations with Israel at the right moment," noted Kerim Has.

In his opinion, the essence of Trump’s proposal lies in the possibility that the idea of withdrawing U.S. troops from Syria might not have originated from Trump himself, but from Erdogan.

"I do not rule out that Erdogan, in a behind-the-scenes conversation, suggested to Trump that he present such an initiative in order to resolve the accumulated issues and dilemmas at once. This is a brilliant gambit by Erdogan for a number of reasons. The fact is, the President of Türkiye, more than anyone, wants the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria, and he is also not opposed to restoring relations with Israel. So, I believe he would gladly accept Trump’s so-called proposal, which would, in part, free his hands both in normalizing relations with Israel and in fighting the PKK, which, as we know, is actively supported by the U.S.

The other question is how the Turkish authorities will explain all this to the Turkish public. In my opinion, in addition to the importance of the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria, one of the arguments for the Turkish audience will be the obvious fact that, thanks to the reshaping of the climate in Syria and its transition into Turkish influence, Israel becomes a direct neighbour of Türkiye, with whom it should not be at odds, but cooperate and be friends. This is a very understandable, rational explanation that, I believe, will satisfy everyone," concluded Has.