Trump vs Harris: Who will the Rust Belt support? Expert insights

US presidential candidate Kamala Harris will have to stick with Joe Biden until the very end, as she has no other support to rely on. This insight comes from pundit Malek Dudakov, who discusses the latest Democratic Party developments on his Telegram channel. He notes that Democrats are forcing Biden to return to the campaign trail as quickly as possible. Just a month ago, he was pressured to step aside, but now, amid all of Harris’s problems, Biden’s rating has even slightly risen, making him a bit more popular than his vice president.

Biden will be pushed to campaign in swing states, particularly in the "Rust Belt" — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Harris is very unpopular there. Thus, Biden, who is barely holding on, will have to rescue Harris’s campaign, which is mired in crisis. Additionally, disappointing electoral statistics are emerging for Democrats regarding Congressional elections. Republicans have a good chance of taking control of the Senate, gaining 51–52 seats. In the House of Representatives, the likelihood of Republicans retaining control is even higher.

Even if Harris wins, she will start her term as a "lame duck." Without Congressional support, she won’t be able to push through promised reforms such as tax increases or price controls on goods. Her only option may be to mismanage foreign policy, which she is likely to do, especially given the Democratic Party's divisions over Israel and Gaza.

However, it's unlikely that Biden will offer much support to Harris. He is likely still deeply hurt by the party's internal coup and may instead be inclined to undermine her. There is no one else to turn to for help: the Clintons are also unpopular, Obama has distanced himself from Harris's campaign, and even Taylor Swift and Beyoncé have declined to support her. According to Dudakov, Harris will have no choice but to stick with Biden until the end.

How accurate is this forecast? Does it reflect the current US political landscape?

Caliber.Az has consulted prominent American experts to provide their insights on this matter.

Political analyst Andrew Korybko believes this analysis might be inaccurate for several reasons.

"Firstly, Biden's mental and potential physical health issues severely hinder his ability to campaign. Even if Kamala Harris wanted Biden to be actively involved in the election, he might literally be unable to handle it.

Secondly, Biden remains unpopular even among Democrats. He was already unpopular before he exited the race. He was previously supported because he was the sitting president, and there was a reluctance to risk party division by holding a real primary," the expert explains.

He points out that, according to this analysis, it is too late to replace Harris with someone else, and no one is seriously interested in taking on that role, even if there were still time.

"Rumors about replacing Harris circulated after Biden endorsed her, with some speculating that someone else might ultimately win the nomination at the party's national convention. This did not happen, but it would have been the best time for such a change. Therefore, observers should be cautious about trusting such reports if they continue to encounter them."

Regarding other polls, although Trump currently leads in the latest ones, it is unclear whether this will lead to Republicans taking control of the Senate and/or retaining the House of Representatives. Even if that happens, there are many "Republicans in Name Only" (RINOs) who are aligned with Democrats and could still help advance their agenda, albeit with some (possibly mostly superficial) changes.

On the foreign policy front, little is likely to change if Kamala Harris wins, as most bureaucrats hold permanent positions, according to the analyst.

He notes that unless there is a significant and far-reaching reshuffling of personnel — which Trump promised to implement if re-elected and did not accomplish during his first term — the career members of the military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (part of the "deep state") will maintain substantial policy continuity.

"Overall, the report and its various claims appear to be more focused on shaping narratives within certain information ecosystems rather than genuinely reflecting the political reality as it exists," Korybko suggested.

According to Irina Tsukerman, a geopolitical and security analyst and editor-in-chief of The Washington Outsider, the analysis is partly accurate but mixes facts with wishful thinking and assumptions.

“For example, the reason Beyoncé and Taylor Swift didn’t appear at the Democratic National Convention is that they were never actually invited. Their rumored appearance was likely a ploy by anonymous sources from the celebrity magazine TMZ, possibly agents of the singers, to generate attention or even secure an invitation.

On a more serious note, it is true that Harris is struggling in the Rust Belt states, and her strategy of appealing to the more progressive wing of the party does not seem to be working. It’s unlikely that Biden will offer significant support. More importantly, choosing Walts as the vice-presidential candidate has not benefited Harris, as it does not broaden her influence in crucial states like Pennsylvania or Arizona and might even cost her support,” Tsukerman remarked.

According to her, Biden likely decided to exit the race after seeing the numbers: his presence would not only hand the White House to Trump but also disrupt the Congressional election campaign.

"Most likely, he will continue to support Harris rather than create problems for her. However, Harris has her own issues for different reasons: despite the Democratic Party backing and actively promoting her, her radical messages are unfounded and out of touch, alienating independents and undecided voters. She can't distance herself from the disastrous economic and foreign policy outcomes of Biden’s administration and has alienated many of her supporters by continuing the behind-the-scenes struggle with Biden's followers.

This doesn't mean Trump's victory is assured; his campaign is also making numerous avoidable mistakes. But the race will be much tighter, given that Harris is much younger than Trump, has more funding, support from women and various demographic minorities based on identity politics, and considering Trump's various political and legal controversies. These elections highlight a leadership crisis in both parties," Tsukerman believes.