UK worries about AUKUS agreement amid Trump’s return to power

There are very few topics on which Donald Trump’s views remain unclear. 

After thousands of hours of interviews and speeches over the past eight years, the president-elect has shared his thoughts on nearly every subject that comes to his mind, Caliber.Az reports, citing foreign media.

However, when it comes to defense, some uncertainties remain. This has prompted global military leaders to closely examine the remarks of Trump’s allies and appointees in an effort to gain insights, particularly regarding the $369 billion trilateral submarine program known as AUKUS, which he will inherit from Joe Biden.

Trump has yet to publicly comment on the AUKUS agreement — named after its members, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States — which involves the US sharing technology with its partners to enable both countries to build advanced nuclear submarines by the 2040s.

This lack of clarity has prompted ministers and officials in both London and Canberra to urgently assess how the Republican may approach the Biden-era deal when he returns to the White House in January. Two defence industry sources said that there are significant concerns within the British government that Trump could attempt to renegotiate the deal or adjust its timelines. The worry stems from the fact that the agreement likely requires the US to temporarily reduce its own naval fleet, a move that Trump may see as incompatible with his "America First" agenda. 

There is optimism in Westminster that Trump would support a military initiative that clearly, though not explicitly, challenges China. The agreement would position American-designed nuclear submarines near China’s doorstep and would contribute to Australia’s efforts to strengthen its military presence in the Indo-Pacific region. When former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated in September 2021 that the AUKUS deal was not "intended to be adversarial toward China," President Xi Jinping clearly did not buy it. 

The Chinese leader argued that AUKUS would "undermine peace" and accused the Western nations of fueling a Cold War mindset. Mary Kissel, a former senior adviser to Trump’s ex-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, noted, "You can assume that Trump 2.0 will resemble Trump 1.0" in terms of forging alliances with other Western nations to counter China.

"We revivified the Quad [Australia, India, Japan, and the US], got our allies to bolster NATO funding and worked to prevent China from dominating international institutions," she said. 

However, the deal also requires the US government to sell Australia three to five active Virginia-class attack submarines — the most advanced in the US Navy's fleet — by the early 2030s, serving as a temporary solution until the new AUKUS submarines are completed.

By Naila Huseynova