Ukraine conflict triggers European arms race

The article from Business Insider explores the significant shift in European defence strategies prompted by the ongoing war in Ukraine, highlighting a renewed focus on long-range strike capabilities. According to Hans Kristensen, a nuclear weapons and arms control expert, the conflict has "opened Pandora's box" in Europe, driving the development and deployment of advanced military technologies reminiscent of Cold War tensions.

As Russia has demonstrated the effectiveness of theatre ballistic and cruise missiles, alongside one-way attack drones, in its assault on Ukrainian cities, Europe and the US are responding by enhancing their own long-range strike capabilities. The article outlines recent strategic moves by NATO allies, particularly the US, which plans to station new long-range weapons in Germany by 2026. These include SM-6, Tomahawk missiles, and hypersonic weapons, designed to extend European defence reach significantly.

Additionally, European nations such as Poland, Germany, France, and Italy have committed to developing ground-launched cruise missiles, addressing a previously identified gap in their military capabilities. French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has underscored the importance of these new systems for Europe's defence, noting that the war in Ukraine has revealed critical vulnerabilities and capability gaps.

Historically, the INF Treaty, which prohibited the development of medium-range missiles, played a key role in preventing an arms race between the US and Russia. However, the US withdrew from the treaty in 2019, accusing Russia of violations, which led to Russia's own withdrawal and a subsequent increase in missile development on both sides. This situation has paved the way for the resurgence of long-range strike systems, including projects like the Typhon system and the Army's Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon.

The article also points out the potential risks associated with these new capabilities, such as the possibility of escalating tensions and the challenges of distinguishing conventional from nuclear threats. Kristensen warns of "tit-for-tat escalation posturing," a concern that underscores the delicate balance of modern military strategies.

In response to the changing security landscape, European countries are increasingly focusing on bolstering their own defences rather than relying solely on US support. This shift is partly motivated by concerns over the future of US commitment to NATO, particularly with the possibility of a second Trump presidency, which has been marked by criticisms of NATO and calls for greater burden-sharing among member states.

Overall, the article illustrates a notable strategic shift in European defence policy, driven by the lessons of the Ukraine conflict and evolving geopolitical pressures. The focus on long-range strike capabilities represents a significant change in approach, reflecting the high stakes and complex dynamics of current global security challenges.