Ukraine's Russia incursion racks up gains, but risks loom

Ukraine has achieved a series of victories since launching a surprise cross-border attack on Russia over a week ago, but the risks are escalating as it plans to secure its newly acquired territory while Russia begins to recover.

Last week, Ukrainian forces surged into Russia’s Kursk region, capturing towns, removing Russian flags, and shifting the initiative from Moscow for the first time in months, Caliber.Az reports per foreign media.

Kyiv officials have announced plans to use the captured Russian territory as a "buffer zone" to protect northern Ukraine from Russian strikes. Oleksandr Syrskyi, head of Ukraine’s armed forces, revealed that a military command office has been established in Kursk, signaling intentions to consolidate control over the area, which spans over 1,150 square kilometers.

The primary objectives of Ukraine’s actions in Kursk include drawing Russian forces away from the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, where Russia has been making steady progress. Former Ukrainian defense minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk noted that despite these efforts, there are no immediate signs of a shift in the situation in Donbas.

The operation has delivered a significant blow to President Vladimir Putin’s reputation, destroyed Russian forces, and created vulnerabilities on Russia’s flank, according to Polish military analyst Konrad Muzyka. Despite this, Russian officials have labeled the Ukrainian incursion as a "terrorist invasion," accusing Ukraine of targeting civilian infrastructure, a claim Ukraine denies.

Putin has vowed a "worthy response" to the invasion and aims to expel Ukrainian forces from Russian territory. However, Ukraine has stated it is not interested in permanently holding Russian land, with some suggesting it may use the territory as leverage in future peace negotiations.

Kyiv-based military analyst Serhiy Zgurets anticipates that Ukraine will aim to maintain control over a strip of land between Rylsk, Korenevoye, and Sudzha, which could be defended with a small force supported by long-range artillery and air defenses. This area’s defense is deemed manageable due to its sparse road network and numerous rivers, with supplies potentially coming from Ukraine’s Sumy region.

However, Muzyka cautions that holding onto a significant portion of Russian land could lead to substantial Ukrainian losses, highlighting ongoing manpower issues in Ukraine’s protracted conflict with a larger adversary. He describes the incursion as a high-risk move that might soon outweigh its benefits, particularly in light of continued Russian advances in Donetsk.

Following initial disorganization, Russia has managed to slow the Ukrainian advance. Satellite images indicate new Russian trench lines further from the border in Kursk. While Ukraine has reported slight progress, Russian forces are countering the incursion with reinforcements and military units from near Kursk.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has faced the dilemma of potentially weakening Ukraine’s defenses along the front in exchange for gains in Russia. Despite Russia’s attempts to respond with reserves, the conflict in Donbas continues with no sign of relief.

In a recent development, Zelenskyy has ordered additional weaponry for critical towns like Pokrovsk and Toretsk, where heavy fighting persists.

Ukrainian soldier Dmytro, stationed at the Sudzha border during the incursion, expressed a desire for a swift end to the war, viewing the attack on Russia as a necessary maneuver to strengthen Ukraine’s position in future negotiations while grappling with the moral implications of invading foreign territory.