Ukraine's wounded grain giant weathers war with Danube exports

Before he was killed in a Russian missile strike last July, CEO Oleksiy Vadaturskiy decided Ukrainian grain exporting giant Nibulon would build up an export route via the Danube River that would be more secure than precarious wartime sea exports.

With the Black Sea export deal now hanging by a thread 16 months into a war that has devastated the firm he founded, that decision is one reason Nibulon is not bankrupt, said his son and successor Andriy, according to Reuters.

The Danube has become their main export route, channelling 190,000 tonnes of grain per month from a standing start when Russia invaded in February 2022, blockading vital sea exports.

The company built a terminal on the Danube on Ukraine's southwestern rim and is now completing a third berth to up capacity to 250,000 tonnes a month in August, Vadaturskiy said.

He added that Nibulon never had faith in the Black Sea grain deal and was surprised it had been agreed in the first place. It has become so unpredictable that buyers were ready to pay over the odds to avoid dealing with it, he said.

The Danube made up roughly a half of Nibulon's exports during the 2022-23 marketing year. That share has risen to 70%-80% versus the volumes it ships across the Black Sea under the grain deal.

"There are a few things that saved the company from bankruptcy. One thing is my father's decision to build this terminal. Because we could plan things, we could sell the goods forward ... Russia and the corridor and the setup they have do not provide this possibility," he said.

He acknowledged that the Danube route where infrastructure is less developed is more expensive than the Black Sea.

"We decided to have a more expensive logistics route, but more secure route."

Nibulon's exports have roughly halved during the invasion and logistics costs have soared.

It exported 2.34 million metric tons in the 2022/23 marketing year, down from 4.6 million tons the previous year.

Before the war, it cost $12 per metric ton for Nibulon to get grain inland loaded onto a vessel; the figure hit a wartime peak of $154 in August before falling to the current level of $70-75, he said.

OCCUPATION, MINES AND LOANS

Vadaturskiy's father and mother were killed on July 31 when a Russian missile crashed into their home in southern Mykolaiv.

The father made Nibulon Ukraine's biggest grain exporter by investing in logistics to build up river transport capacity, a fleet of vessels at Mykolaiv and its own shipyard.

Fifteen years worth of investment along the Dnipro that bisects Ukraine have been wiped out by the destruction last month of the Kakhovka Dam and the emptying of its reservoir that was a key part of that waterway, he said.

"The whole transportation system and navigation will be rebuilt only after with the rebuilding of the Kakhovka Dam and the filling up of the water, increasing the level and you can start navigation again. It's a very long process," he said.

Pre-war, the company employed 6,000 people. It has lost 40% of staff to people fleeing the country, serving in the army and being killed. Tracts of its land are occupied by Russia or strewn with mines.

Since the war started, Nibulon has had a loan portfolio of $570 million with creditors including the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the IFC and EIB, he said.

The company has stabilised financially and is holding restructuring talks with creditors, he said, adding that Ukrainian banks are taking a leading role in that process.

The company is now Ukraine's third or fourth top exporter.

If the Black Sea deal ends on July 17, Nibulon would benefit in the short term, he said. But it would drive up the price of logistics and transport for farmers and in turn hammer Ukrainian production.

"That is why they would produce less and Nibulon would lose in the long-run and Ukraine would produce less."