US and allies met secretly with Ukraine on peace plan

A secret meeting took place last month between Ukraine, its Group of Seven allies, and a small group of Global South countries to try to rally support for Kyiv’s conditions for holding peace talks with Russia, according to people familiar with the matter.

The previously undisclosed Dec. 16 meeting of national security advisers was held in Saudi Arabia and followed larger, publicized gatherings aimed at countering Moscow’s attempts to divide and paint Ukraine and its allies as unwilling to negotiate an end to the war, Bloomberg reports.

The secrecy was aimed in part at making participant countries feel more comfortable about joining. The smaller format allowed for a freer, more frank discussion on Ukraine’s so-called peace formula and plans for moving that process forward as well as principles for potentially engaging with Russia in future, the people said.

But the allied push has sputtered in recent months as Russia’s invasion heads toward its third year. In the US and the European Union, more than $100 billion in vital aid stalled in approval processes in Washington and Brussels, while Ukraine’s counteroffensive last year failed to deliver a major battlefield breakthrough.

Meanwhile, some EU states are falling short in fulfilling pledges they made to provide Kyiv with more weapons and artillery ammunition just as Ukraine is facing repeated waves of Russian missile attacks. The Israel-Hamas war has also fueled differences with the Global South.

Little Headway

There was no major progress at the latest meeting, held in Riyadh, according to people familiar with the session who asked for anonymity to discuss matters that aren’t public. Ukraine and its G-7 allies continued to resist calls from the Global South nations to engage directly with Russia, they said.

Moscow has denounced the allied efforts - to which Russia hasn’t been invited - as a farce.

While top officials from India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey joined the December meeting in Riyadh, other major Global South nations who had come to some of the previous larger sessions - notably China, Brazil and the United Arab Emirates - didn’t send their representatives, the people said.

Beijing is seen by many of the participating countries as key to influencing Moscow given close ties between the two. Brazil, which is presiding over this year’s Group of 20, contributed a written statement, the people said.

Kyiv and its G-7 allies reaffirmed their view that a just peace needs to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, and argued that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s goals hadn’t changed and he’s shown no sign of being serious about wanting substantive negotiations and has failed to respect past agreements. The allies made clear they will continue backing Ukraine, and the EU and the US said they were confident that the support packages would be agreed.

Spokespeople for the White House National Security Council declined to comment. Both the Ukrainian and Saudi governments didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

Next Steps

Ukraine and its allies have planned another meeting of the broader group in Switzerland next week ahead of the World Economic Forum in Davos and invited more than 100 countries, the people said. Previous sessions were held in Copenhagen, Jeddah and Malta last year.

Kyiv wants to hold a leaders’ summit on the blueprint early this year and use that as a springboard to establish a plan based on a set of agreed principles as the basis for any future talks with Moscow.

Some nations believe a leader-level summit in the coming months is premature, while others want to immediately involve Russia in the process.

Putin visited Saudi Arabia for wide-ranging talks earlier in December, a rare foreign trip amid the international isolation his invasion has brought.

One person close to the Kremlin suggested at the end of last year that there have been some contacts, probing interest in a cease-fire deal, but didn’t provide any details. There’s been no confirmation of that and Ukraine and its allies suspect any such outreach is a disingenuous Kremlin ploy to undermine support for Kyiv and buy time.

Putin has expressed willingness to end the conflict, but “only on our terms.” His conditions have included the removal of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government and a massive reduction in Ukraine’s defense capabilities.

“Peace will come when we achieve our goals,” Putin said at an end-of-year media event in December. “It means the denazification, demilitarization of Ukraine and its neutral status.”

A withdrawal of Russian troops from its territory is a core pillar of Ukraine’s peace formula. Other points include returning deported children and prisoners of war as well as ensuring food and energy security.

All participants in the Riyadh discussion acknowledged Ukraine’s right to defend itself and agreed on the need to uphold key United Nations principles - including respecting the territorial integrity of states — and international law, said the people.