Media: US tariffs threaten to derail Italy’s economic growth

The United States’ planned imposition of 30% tariffs on select imported goods starting August 1 could deliver a severe blow to the Italian economy, potentially shrinking its gross domestic product (GDP) by 1.4% and erasing forecasted growth for the next two years, according to Italian business daily Il Sole 24 Ore.

Citing internal projections, the report warns that the tariffs—targeted at strategic European sectors—may lead to economic losses of up to €30 billion between 2025 and 2026. This would all but nullify Italy’s expected growth of 0.6% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026. Even if the US ultimately settles on a 20% tariff rate, analysts estimate the damage would still total around €20 billion.

Marco Daviddi, managing partner at Ernst & Young (EY), emphasised the vulnerability of sectors most reliant on the US market, particularly pharmaceuticals, agri-food, and advanced machinery.

“These are precisely the areas where Italy has traditionally excelled, but which are now at significant risk,” Daviddi stated.

The Italian economy is heavily export-driven, with the United States being a critical market for high-value goods.

The tariffs are part of a broader US strategy that could affect other European economies, potentially prompting retaliatory measures from the European Union. Previous trade disputes, such as the EU’s response to US tariffs in 2018, saw counter-tariffs on American goods like bourbon and motorcycles. Italy, as part of the EU, may face pressure to align with collective trade policies while managing domestic economic fallout. Globally, the tariffs could disrupt transatlantic trade flows, impacting supply chains and increasing costs for consumers on both sides.

By Khagan Isayev