Wall Street Journal: Israel tests limits of air power in clash with Iran

An article by The Wall Street Journal asserts that the ongoing confrontation between Israel and Iran is historically unprecedented—a factor that is likely to influence not only its eventual outcome but also the broader trajectory of modern warfare.  

Since last week, successive waves of Israeli warplanes have struck targets across Iran, presenting a high-stakes experiment in the effectiveness of air power alone. The unfolding conflict between Israel and Iran—historically unique in its scope—is testing conventional military wisdom, which holds that air strikes, while vital, are seldom sufficient to secure victory when expansive strategic objectives are in play.

Israel’s stated objectives extend beyond delivering military blows. The primary goal is to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons—either by physically dismantling its nuclear infrastructure or by compelling Tehran toward negotiations. Some Israeli leaders have even raised the possibility of ousting Iran’s theocratic regime entirely.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called on the United States to join the effort, highlighting the value of American bunker-busting munitions in neutralizing hardened sites like Iran’s Fordow enrichment complex. The White House indicated that President Trump would reach a decision within the next two weeks.

Israeli authorities appear confident that air power, supplemented by small special forces and intelligence teams, may suffice—even without deploying large-scale ground forces. This is primarily due to Israel’s limited capacity for extended land operations far from its borders, and the Biden administration’s reluctance to commit American troops to new foreign engagements.

Such an outcome—victory through air power alone—would demand near-total degradation of Iran’s nuclear capability. As military historian Phillips O’Brien of St. Andrews University observes, “That’s never easy—which is why there are so few” purely aerial wars. He emphasizes that without seizure of territory, victory must rest on dismantling rival military infrastructure through strategic targeting.

Ofer Fridman, a former Israeli officer now at King’s College London, echoes this view but cautions: “The problem is we don’t know what really are the goals” for Israel. The broad mix of targeted facilities—from nuclear and military sites to regime-control mechanisms and economic assets—suggests an expansive strategy that could escalate beyond air assaults.

Iran’s objectives are simpler: regime preservation and continuation of nuclear enrichment. Its ballistic missile barrages have largely been contained by Israeli air defences. Meanwhile, Israeli jets have dominated western Iranian skies, delivering precise strikes across the region. Analysts suggest Iran may ultimately win on attrition, hoping Israel’s air campaign exhausts over time.

There are at least four potential outcomes: Israel might significantly degrade Iran’s nuclear infrastructure; compel Tehran into nuclear concessions; contribute to regime collapse; or, failing that, merely delay Iran’s nuclear ambitions given time to rebuild.

Historical precedents—Israel’s 1981 strike on Iraq’s Osirak reactor or its 2007 assault on Syria—show that while air power can cause critical short-term disruption, nuclear programs often resurfaced underground or later. Michael O’Hanlon of Brookings reflects: the long-term success of those operations is mixed.

The rarity of air-only wars underscores the challenge. As recognized in the US Air Force’s seminal 1995 booklet “Ten Propositions Regarding Airpower”: “In reality, the attainment of air superiority has not yet brought a country to its knees. Therefore, the proposition remains that air superiority is a necessary but insufficient factor in victory.”

Israel’s ongoing campaign thus stands at a pivotal crossroads: if limited to the skies, can it deliver strategic results—or will it reinforce the historical pattern that air power, without ground forces, rarely achieves decisive outcomes?

By Vafa Guliyeva