West’s missile defence problem is getting worse

Ukraine’s air defenses are facing a dangerous problem: the missiles needed to stop Russia’s ballistic attacks are running short. As Kyiv residents once again shelter in metro stations and underground garages, the shortage is exposing a wider vulnerability across the Western alliance, according to an analysis by The Economist.

Ukraine had previously relied heavily on Patriot systems to counter Russia’s most sophisticated ballistic and hypersonic missiles. But dwindling interceptor stocks are increasingly limiting their effectiveness, while the cost of replacing them far exceeds the price of many of the weapons they are designed to destroy.

War of expensive interceptors

The problem extends beyond Ukraine. The United States and its Middle Eastern allies consumed large quantities of interceptors during this year’s war with Iran. The Centre for Strategic and International Studies estimates that the Pentagon may have used nearly two-thirds of its pre-war Patriot stock.

The consequences are already being felt by allies. Switzerland expects delays of up to seven years for its Patriot order, while Taiwan is concerned that some of its missiles will not arrive on schedule.

Patriot PAC-3 MSE interceptors cost roughly $4 million to $5 million each. Cheaper drones can cost a fraction of that.

“If your adversary can field a one-way attack UAV for the price of a used car, and your answer is a surface-to-air missile that costs the same as a small apartment here in London, you’re losing the exchange even though you’re winning every single engagement,” Colonel Sabah Al Sabah said at a recent RUSI event.

Ukraine’s defence is under pressure

Ukraine has developed layered air defences, combining systems designed to counter drones, cruise missiles and ballistic weapons. But Patriots remain particularly important against Russian Iskander-M and Kinzhal missiles.

According to The Economist, Ukraine’s reported ballistic-missile interception rate fell from about 70% in March to roughly 20% in July. The situation has deteriorated further in August, with Russia simultaneously increasing missile production.

Kyiv has requested at least 300 additional Patriot interceptors ahead of winter, but countries holding stocks are increasingly reluctant to transfer them.

The United States and its allies are trying to expand production. Manufacturers plan to increase PAC-3 output from about 600 annually to around 2,000 by the early 2030s. Yet production increases take years, while actual contracts for expanded output remain limited.

Search for cheaper alternatives

European manufacturers are developing alternatives, including improved SAMP-T systems, while Ukraine and European partners are pursuing cheaper interceptors.

The Freyja project, involving Ukrainian defence company Fire Point and European arms manufacturers, aims to produce an interceptor costing about one-quarter as much as the PAC-3. But expectations remain cautious. Douglas Barrie of the International Institute for Strategic Studies calls Freyja “a moon shot”.

Lockheed Martin is also developing the PAC-3 ACE, or “Baby Patriot”, a smaller and cheaper interceptor that could enter production in 2028. Lasers could eventually reduce costs further, although current systems remain largely effective only against drones.

The bigger threat: China

The crisis has implications far beyond Ukraine. A future US-China conflict over Taiwan could place American bases and ships under sustained missile attack.

A Heritage Foundation study estimates that the United States could require more than 19,000 Patriot interceptors in such a conflict—far beyond current stocks.

That makes offensive operations increasingly important.

“The cheapest interceptor is the one you never have to fire because the weapon was never launched,” former US Air Force General David Deptula said.

But striking Chinese missile forces would carry major escalation risks because the PLA Rocket Force also controls China’s nuclear arsenal.

By Sabina Mammadli