Western pressure could lead to civil war in Lebanon - media

Lebanon finds itself in a precarious situation as Western policymakers push for rapid political reforms amidst the backdrop of war. Last week, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock highlighted Lebanon’s imminent collapse, warning that the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah could threaten the country’s religiously diverse society.

The Lebanese population is frustrated not only by the ground invasion in the south but also by the pressure from Western nations and Israel to implement swift political changes, Caliber.Az reports per foreign media.

Currently, the appointment of a president—a position vacant for over two years due to sectarian disputes and Hezbollah's veto—must precede any reform efforts. A president focused on restoring state authority could initiate significant changes to Lebanon's sectarian political system, which has strengthened Hezbollah at the expense of weakened state institutions.

General Joseph Aoun, commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), is favored by Western policymakers as a potential leader for this transition. With a solid reputation across Lebanon’s political divides, Aoun's neutrality and successful military campaigns against threats like ISIS position him as a capable candidate.

However, dismantling Hezbollah's influence is a complicated task. US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller stated the goal is to free Lebanon from Hezbollah’s grip and remove its veto power over presidential appointments. Yet, critics emphasize that any solution must be consensual to avoid reigniting sectarian conflict.

Lebanon is reeling from a financial crisis that has left 85 per cent of its population in poverty and compounded by the devastation of the 2020 port explosion. The current conflict exacerbates the nation’s struggles, as fears mount over the potential for a prolonged war. There are concerns that Israeli actions might aim to render large areas of southern Lebanon uninhabitable to prevent Hezbollah's resurgence.

As the fighting continues, 20 per cent of Lebanon's population is displaced, and the humanitarian crisis deepens. The outlook for Lebanon remains uncertain, hinging on Israel’s military strategy and the broader geopolitical landscape, leaving the country in a state of limbo as it grapples with its dire circumstances.

By Vafa Guliyeva