What Trump’s win could mean for Lebanon

An Al Arabiya article provides an insightful analysis of the potential implications of Donald Trump's political comeback for Lebanon, particularly regarding the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon involving Israel and Iran-backed groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. The article explores how Trump’s approach to the Middle East, his foreign policy record, and his relationship with key players in the region—such as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Hezbollah, and Iran—may influence the trajectory of the Lebanese crisis and broader regional dynamics.

The article highlights Trump’s past foreign policy actions, such as withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal and applying "maximum pressure" on Tehran. Trump’s focus on combating Iran’s influence in the Middle East, particularly through sanctions and military actions, is central to his strategy.

His campaign rhetoric and promises to "bring peace" to the region, especially regarding Israel’s conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah, are examined. However, analysts note the discrepancy between campaign promises and presidential action, raising questions about the feasibility of Trump’s proposed solutions.

The article delves into Lebanon’s uncertainty regarding a potential Trump presidency, with many Lebanese believing that US support for Israel will remain unchanged, regardless of who occupies the White House. Hezbollah, which has been involved in ongoing skirmishes with Israel along the southern Lebanese border, does not appear to place much hope in a change of US administration to resolve the situation. Despite Trump’s promises, Lebanon’s internal complexities, particularly Hezbollah’s role, complicate any potential peace deal.

Massad Boulos, a Lebanese-American billionaire with ties to Trump’s family, offers a more optimistic view, suggesting that Trump will deliver on his promises to bring peace to Lebanon and contribute to the country’s rebuilding. However, analysts caution that achieving peace is not so straightforward. Lebanon’s political and military complexities, including Hezbollah’s influence and Israel’s strategic goals, could thwart any attempt at an immediate resolution.

The article suggests that a second Trump term could embolden Israel’s stance in the region, particularly against Hezbollah. Israel’s military response to Hezbollah’s actions in southern Lebanon has been aggressive, and the piece implies that a Trump administration, with its staunch pro-Israel stance, might offer Israel more leeway in pursuing its objectives without restraint.

Trump’s endorsement of Israeli military actions, including his phone call urging Netanyahu to “do what you have to do,” signals a potential shift toward a more confrontational approach, further complicating efforts for peace.

Trump’s successful negotiation of the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations, is also mentioned. The article suggests that Trump may seek to expand these agreements if re-elected, which could further isolate Hezbollah and Iran in the region while deepening Israel’s ties with moderate Arab states.

The article ends by noting that Netanyahu’s support for Trump’s victory could signal a renewed push for aggressive military actions in Gaza and Lebanon. With a strong backing from the US, Israel may feel emboldened to act decisively in the region. As the US transition period approaches, there is concern that Trump’s influence may encourage Israeli leaders to act quickly and decisively in both Gaza and Lebanon, seeking a diplomatic victory that could shape the early days of his presidency.

The piece effectively captures the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s foreign policy, particularly in Lebanon, where many hope for peace but are wary of the challenges involved. It highlights Lebanon’s complex position amid the ongoing conflict, the influence of Hezbollah, and the broader regional power dynamics, including US-Israel relations. While Trump’s rhetoric suggests a peace-driven approach, analysts caution that the reality of regional geopolitics may limit his ability to deliver on these promises. His presidency could also embolden Israel, leading to further military escalation in Lebanon, while complicating efforts for lasting peace.

The analysis underscores the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies and the broader implications for Lebanon and the Middle East if he returns to power, emphasizing the region's fragility in the face of competing international and regional interests.

By Vafa Guliyeva