Will Trump’s diplomatic charm and threats strategy work against US foes? Analysis by The Hill

President-elect Donald Trump is poised to use his characteristic blend of aggressive threats and amicable overtures to authoritarian leaders in his effort to disrupt the growing alliances among U.S. adversaries China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

The effectiveness of this approach remains uncertain, especially given Trump’s unpredictable style in foreign affairs and the divergent opinions among his expected advisers, Caliber.Az reports citing the Hill's analysis.

Trump has often been critical of European allies and NATO, accusing them of over-reliance on American military support. At the same time, he touts his personal connections with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

“We’ll have a very good relationship, and there’s reasons for them to want to like us, there’s big reasons,” Trump declared at a late October campaign event in Arizona, referring to Putin, Xi, and Kim while discussing breaking up their alliances.

He also criticized previous administrations, saying, “Look at what these stupid people have done, they’ve allowed Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and others to get together in a group, this is impossible to think.”

This coalition of nations has been labeled in foreign policy discussions as an “axis of aggressors,” an “axis of upheaval,” or the acronym “CRINK” (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea).

The war in Ukraine has accelerated these alliances, with Putin seeking support from Beijing, Pyongyang, and Tehran for resources and military assistance. In exchange, these nations seek economic, military, or political benefits from Russia.

Although foreign policy experts point out that the CRINK countries are not natural allies and have numerous conflicting interests, their shared goal of challenging American dominance serves as a unifying factor.

“CRINK is watching what we do. … It is a threat to all of us, and the best way to confront CRINK is to help Ukraine to achieve victory,” said David Kramer, executive director of the George W. Bush Institute and former deputy assistant secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs.

Supporters of a strong U.S. stance on Ukraine are urging Trump to distinguish himself from President Biden by aiding Ukraine to secure a win against Moscow. They argue that, while Biden has successfully rallied European and Asian allies to support Ukraine and isolate Russia, his administration has hesitated to provide Kyiv with all the tools needed for a definitive victory, fearing escalation with Putin.

“This is an opportunity for the incoming Trump administration to stand in stark contrast to the current Biden administration, which is to help Ukraine to victory. That is something the Biden administration never clearly enunciated. It’s something the Trump administration could help Ukraine achieve,” Kramer emphasized.

He also echoed a frequent Trump sentiment, suggesting that “Europeans can and should do more.”

Despite these arguments, Trump has stopped short of pledging full support for Ukraine's victory over Russia. Several of his key allies, including Tucker Carlson, Elon Musk, and Vice President-elect JD Vance, have questioned the wisdom of supporting Ukraine, criticized President Volodymyr Zelensky, and expressed concerns over Putin’s nuclear threats or the strategic value of defending Kyiv.

Trump has repeatedly voiced concerns about the wars in Europe and the Middle East escalating into World War III or leading to nuclear “obliteration.”

During his previous presidency, Trump had discussed renegotiating the New START treaty on U.S.-Russia arms control to include China, a proposal that Beijing resisted. The treaty is set to expire in 2026.

One of the experts pointed out that it’s unlikely the U.S. can get far on addressing nuclear threats without consultations or cooperation with key allies, like Europe and NATO when it comes to Russia; South Korea and Japan when it comes to North Korea and China; and Israel when it comes to Iran. 

“Trump is not going to have carte blanche to make deals with this rogue dictator or that rogue dictator, there will be some real-world constraints on what he’ll be able to do,” he said. “But exactly what those are and where they wind up applying, yet to be seen.”

By Tamilla Hasanova