World enters new demographic era as over-65s outnumber children under 5

People aged 65 and older now outnumber children aged 5 and under worldwide for the first time in recorded history, according to a new report from the U.S. Census Bureau, cited by Axios.

The shift reflects a global plunge in fertility — the demographic term for the number of children being born — combined with rising life expectancy. Demographers expect the resulting demographic inversion to deepen for decades, fundamentally altering the historic balance between working-age populations and older adults.

The scale and speed of the change are particularly striking as the youngest members of the Baby Boom generation approach their mid-60s. An analysis of Census data by Axios highlights the growing challenge of caring for aging populations and sustaining programs such as Social Security in the United States.

Low fertility spreads beyond wealthy nations

More than 71% of the world's population lived in countries where fertility rates were at or below the replacement level of roughly 2.1 births per woman in 2023, according to the report. That figure was 45% in 2013. The Census Bureau said the world reached this demographic tipping point much earlier than demographers had expected just a decade ago.

The global population aged 65 and over is projected to rise from 852 million in 2025 to 2 billion by 2060. That increase would represent about 55% of total net global population growth over the period, according to an Axios calculation based on Census projections.

Overall, the world's population is projected to grow from 8.13 billion to 10.23 billion by 2060.

Asia to drive most of the increase

The era of low fertility is no longer confined to wealthy countries.

China and India, the world's two most populous countries, now have fertility rates below the roughly 2.1 births-per-woman replacement level, the Census report says. Bangladesh, Mexico and Vietnam are among the world's most populous countries to have fallen below replacement-level fertility since 2013.

In many countries experiencing persistently low birth rates, the decline can create what the report calls a “fertility trap.”

Smaller, younger generations follow larger older ones, accelerating population aging and, in some countries, eventually contributing to population decline. The result is a shrinking pool of potential workers and caregivers supporting growing numbers of older people, placing increasing pressure on pension systems, healthcare and long-term care.

The United States ranked 48th among 227 countries and territories by the share of its population aged 65 and older in 2025, with seniors accounting for 18.9% of the population.

By 2060, that proportion is projected to rise to 23.4%. Yet the United States is expected to fall to 110th in the global ranking because other countries are aging at a much faster pace.

Europe remains the world's oldest region, but the largest numerical increase in the older population is expected elsewhere.

Asia's population aged 65 and over is projected to rise from 487 million in 2025 to 1.24 billion by 2060, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the global increase.

Africa remains by far the world's youngest region, but its older population is projected to more than quadruple, from 60 million to 249 million. By 2060, Africa is expected to have more people aged 65 and over than Europe, whose older population is projected to reach 214 million.

Worldwide, the share of people aged 65 and over is projected to nearly double, from 10.5% in 2025 to 19.6% in 2060.

Ageing is not necessarily a crisis

A growing share of older people does not necessarily spell demographic catastrophe.

Longer lives are among the major achievements of the past century, reflecting declines in infant and midlife mortality and allowing more people to survive into old age.

Older people are also less likely to commit crimes, while many can remain economically active, help address labor shortages and contribute through caregiving and volunteering.

The demographic shift could therefore require societies to rethink old age as an economic asset rather than simply a cost, Andrew Scott, a contributor to the Census report, said.

Preventive healthcare, longer working lives and age-friendly employment could, he argues, transform longer lifespans into additional years of healthier, more economically engaged lives.

By Tamilla Hasanova