WSJ: Beijing sees "rare window" to shape Taiwan’s politics

Beijing is intensifying efforts to influence Taiwan’s political landscape by cultivating ties with the island’s main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), while exploiting uncertainty over the strength of US support for Taiwan, according to The Wall Street Journal analysis.

The effort has focused in part on KMT chairwoman Cheng Li-wun, whose six-day visit to mainland China in April marked the first such trip by a major Taiwanese opposition leader in nearly a decade. During the high-profile visit, Cheng met Chinese President Xi Jinping, toured Chinese technology and industrial facilities and was presented with a kangaroo mascot by the chairman of Meituan.

According to the WSJ, Chinese officials had met KMT negotiators months before the trip to discuss language Cheng would use during her visit. People familiar with the matter told the newspaper that Cheng shared prepared remarks in advance, including statements opposing Taiwan independence.

Cheng later described Xi’s hands as “soft as clouds.”

The visit illustrates what the WSJ describes as a broader Chinese strategy aimed at influencing Taiwanese society without resorting to military conflict. Beijing continues to apply military pressure around the island while simultaneously seeking to persuade Taiwanese that resistance to Chinese control is futile.

A key factor, according to the analysis, is uncertainty over US policy under President Donald Trump. Beijing sees Trump’s second term as a potential opportunity to influence Taiwanese public opinion, while concerns have grown in Taiwan about Washington’s long-term commitment.

“Beijing sees Trump’s second term as a ‘rare window of opportunity’ to sway Taiwanese opinion in the mainland’s favor,” Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council Minister Chiu Chui-cheng told the WSJ.

“They think Trump’s unpredictability on U.S. commitments gives Xi more room to operate.”

The newspaper notes that US-Taiwan ties have also deepened in some areas. Taiwan has begun acknowledging previously undisclosed US military training on the island, while American officials have publicly highlighted cooperation with Taiwan’s coast guard.

At the same time, Beijing is seeking greater influence inside Taiwan through political engagement and online information campaigns. Taiwan’s National Security Bureau said Beijing conducted an “all-out” cognitive warfare campaign in 2025, identifying 45,000 suspected accounts, compared with about 28,000 the previous year.

The WSJ also reports that Taiwanese security officials detected AI-generated disinformation and online campaigns supporting Cheng during last year’s KMT leadership election. Beijing has denied involvement in disinformation operations.

Cheng’s political evolution makes her particularly significant. She began as a student activist involved in pro-democracy protests against the KMT and advocated Taiwanese independence before leaving the Democratic Progressive Party and eventually joining the KMT.

As party chairwoman, she has promoted closer relations with Beijing while arguing that Taiwan should not have to choose between China and the United States.

“Why can’t I choose both? Why must I choose a side?” Cheng said.

“We will never forget the friendship and generosity of the United States,” she added. “But at the same time, mainland China is our family, and we could never bring ourselves to harm our own flesh and blood.”

The WSJ analysis suggests Beijing’s strategy carries risks. Excessive pressure or an overly pro-China posture could deepen public resistance to the mainland, including within the KMT itself.

“Most party members, including younger ones, still regard Beijing as just communists,” said Alexander Huang, a former senior KMT official, describing Cheng’s position as “solid but small.”

By Sabina Mammadli