WSJ: Trump's return brings renewed focus on isolating Iran economically, diplomatically

President-elect Donald Trump is set to adopt an aggressive strategy aimed at increasing pressure on Iran by reinstating strict sanctions and throttling oil exports, according to sources briefed on his intentions.

His approach reflects an effort to undermine Iran’s financial and military support for Middle Eastern proxies and its nuclear ambitions, Caliber.Az reports, citing The Wall Street Journal. 

Trump's animosity toward Iran is longstanding, rooted in his decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) during his first term. This pact, involving six nations, sought to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities in exchange for sanction relief.

The withdrawal marked the start of a “maximum pressure” campaign, which combined severe sanctions with diplomatic efforts to reduce Iran’s regional influence and prevent nuclear weapon development. However, this approach yielded mixed results and failed to achieve a comprehensive halt to Iran’s proxy activities or nuclear program.

Former Trump administration officials suggest that his future dealings with Iran will be influenced by Tehran’s alleged attempts to assassinate him and senior national security figures following their exit from office.

The assassination plots were reportedly linked to US actions, including the 2020 drone strike that killed General Qassem Soleimani, who led Iran’s elite paramilitary force. “People tend to take that stuff personally,” noted Mick Mulroy, who served as a senior Pentagon official for the Middle East. He predicted that Trump’s second term would involve a particularly harsh stance on Iran.

The strategy being considered reportedly includes reviving efforts to cut off Iran’s oil revenue by targeting foreign ports and traders handling Iranian oil. This tactic mirrors the embargo Trump imposed in 2019, which drove Iran’s oil exports to a historic low of 250,000 barrels per day by early 2020.

Nevertheless, oil shipments rebounded to a six-year peak under President Biden. The new approach would aim to replicate and intensify these measures, with former White House officials hinting at a “maximum pressure 2.0” policy.

Brian Hook, a key figure in the original campaign who is anticipated to hold a significant role in Trump’s administration, stated that Trump is committed to economically and diplomatically isolating Iran. The goal, he said, would be to cut funding for militant groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, who benefit from Tehran’s financial and military support. “Trump has ‘no interest’ in seeking to overthrow Iran’s rulers,” Hook remarked, aligning this position with targeted economic and diplomatic tactics.

Analysts warn that renewed sanctions could complicate the global oil market and inflation. Robert McNally, a former energy official, suggested that blocking Chinese ports importing Iranian oil and sanctioning Iraqi officials who aid Iran’s militias could substantially cut oil exports.

He projected that merely signalling aggressive sanctions would likely remove approximately 500,000 barrels a day from China’s oil purchases. Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets added that Trump’s advisers might even endorse Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, a departure from Biden’s cautious strategy to prevent escalation.

Iranian officials offered mixed reactions to Trump’s prospective return to office. President Masoud Pezeshkian dismissed the significance of the US election outcome, asserting, “our country and system relies on its inner strength.” However, concerns within Iran are growing over the economic repercussions of renewed US pressure.

An Iranian oil official conceded that “the situation may become catastrophic for Iran’s oil industry,” exacerbated by existing natural gas shortages due to long-term underinvestment. Still, a diplomat indicated Iran’s plan to counteract these challenges through partnerships within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and other trade alliances, hinting at potential nuclear escalations or threats to regional oil infrastructure.

Despite the aggressive rhetoric, former Trump officials did not rule out the possibility of future negotiations. “Trump likes to make deals,” Mulroy remarked, but only under the condition that “it’s his deal.”

By Aghakazim Guliyev