Zelenskyy's challenge: Finding way forward as support falters Article by NYT

The recent article published by The New York Times delves into the challenges faced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as he seeks to rally Western support for his "victory plan," which he believes could bring an end to the ongoing war with Russia by next year. 

Despite his extensive lobbying efforts over the past several weeks, which included a tour of the United States and Europe, Zelenskyy has encountered a tepid response from Western leaders. Key aspects of his plan, such as securing long-range missiles for striking military targets deep inside Russia, have not gained traction, and no major powers have endorsed Ukraine's NATO membership while the conflict continues.

Military analysts and diplomats suggest that the real audience for Zelenskyy's campaign may be within Ukraine itself. His attempts to gain support can be viewed as a way to demonstrate to the Ukrainian people that he is actively seeking assistance and doing everything possible to secure their interests. This approach also serves to prepare them for the possibility that compromises may need to be made in negotiations with Russia, providing a scapegoat in the form of Western hesitancy. The deteriorating situation on the eastern front, increasing losses, and the looming uncertainty surrounding the U.S. elections, which could drastically alter foreign policy toward Ukraine, make Zelenskyy's efforts even more crucial.

Zelenskyy is emphasizing his need for military assistance, particularly in light of new developments such as the reported involvement of North Korean troops supporting Russian forces in the Kursk region. This situation has added urgency to his request for Western aid. In an interview, he expressed frustration over the lack of alternative plans should the West not back his strategy. He reiterated his position against ceding Ukrainian territory but discussed the importance of diplomatic measures to safeguard energy infrastructure and establish safe shipping routes from Ukraine via the Black Sea.

However, U.S. officials have privately expressed concerns about the feasibility of Zelenskyy's victory plan. They consider it overly reliant on Western aid and believe that some aspects of his requests, such as acquiring Tomahawk missiles — capable of striking targets over 1,500 miles away—are unrealistic given the limitations on missile supplies. Additionally, there is scepticism about how Ukraine would effectively utilize long-range weaponry, as the potential targets inside Russia exceed the number of available missiles.

Zelenskyy reportedly felt blindsided by President Biden’s refusal to allow the use of U.S. long-range missiles in attacks against Russia during their meeting in September, especially considering past instances where Biden had eventually conceded to Ukraine's requests for military support. Zelenskyy's advisers have emphasized the need for these long-range capabilities, asserting that they have provided all necessary details regarding their proposed use.

As the war continues, both Ukraine and Russia face significant casualties. Ukrainian soldiers are becoming increasingly fatigued, and recruitment of new soldiers has slowed, with many new enlistees being older and less trained. Conversely, Russian forces have also suffered extensive losses, reportedly incurring more casualties in September than at any other time during the conflict.

Despite ongoing claims from President Putin that Russia is open to negotiations, former Russian officials have indicated that no talks are likely while Ukrainian forces remain in contested territories like Kursk. Zelenskyy has sought support from the United Nations to assist Ukraine in preventing Russia from solidifying its gains and freezing the conflict.

Domestic sentiment in Ukraine appears to be shifting as well, with polls indicating that many citizens are still unwilling to entertain the idea of ceding land. Zelenskyy must navigate a complex political landscape, managing pressures from both domestic constituencies and changing dynamics among Western allies. As Western focus increasingly shifts to other geopolitical crises, including tensions in the Middle East, fatigue regarding the war in Ukraine is becoming palpable.

Leaders from various NATO countries, including the Czech Republic and Finland, have hinted that Ukraine may need to accept temporary territorial concessions to reach a resolution. Analysts predict that the most probable near-term scenario involves a ceasefire that freezes the front lines but requires assurances that Russia would not attempt further territorial gains.

The upcoming U.S. elections will play a significant role in shaping the future of Ukraine's war strategy, with differing views among candidates regarding support for Ukraine. While Vice President Kamala Harris has committed to continuing Biden's policies, there is speculation that she may modify the approach to military aid. Conversely, former President Trump has openly expressed scepticism about ongoing support for Ukraine, raising concerns about potential shifts in U.S. policy.

Zelenskyy's aspiration for NATO membership during the conflict remains a contentious issue. While some NATO members express support for Ukraine’s eventual accession, the U.S. and Germany are hesitant to extend an invitation while the war is ongoing, fearing it could escalate NATO's involvement with nuclear-armed Russia. Amidst this backdrop, Zelenskyy faces the daunting task of maintaining Ukrainian resolve while navigating a complicated international landscape and preparing for potential compromises in a protracted conflict.

Frustration is evident among Ukrainian military personnel, who feel that their capabilities are insufficient against Russian forces without enhanced support from Western allies. Many believe that Western assistance has been inadequate, aimed only at ensuring Ukraine does not lose rather than enabling a definitive victory. As the war drags on, the sentiment of fighting until the last Ukrainian grows, posing significant challenges for Zelenskyy as he balances the expectations of his people with the reality of geopolitical constraints.

By Tamilla Hasanova