Baku will manage without Yerevan's foreign "advocates" at the talks Musabekov and Ryabtsov talk to Caliber.Az

Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry proposed Armenia to hold a meeting on the conditional border to discuss the peace process. Our country's Foreign Ministry urged the Armenian side not to allow unnecessary foot-dragging and expressed hope that Yerevan will back the call to start negotiations in the near future. In other words, Azerbaijan continues to advance the peace agenda despite Armenia's hemming and hawing, delaying its response to Baku's proposals on the draft peace agreement for more than two months. It isn't easy to understand the logic of our neighbours.

Caliber.Az talked to Azerbaijani and Russian experts about the further steps of the sides on the way to a peace agreement.

Azerbaijani MP Rasim Musabekov believes that a return to the roots of the negotiation process this time can be productive only if there is goodwill.

"But there is one nuance here - the cowardice of Armenians. Pashinyan's government feels insecure in direct dialogue with Azerbaijan and is trying in every possible way to drag its patrons in France or the United States into them. Obviously, they have not succeeded, as Baku informed Charles Michel, Macron and Scholz on the eve of the meeting in Granada that if the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiation platform expands with the participation of "advocates", they should agree to the participation of our ally Türkiye. The Armenian proposals do not suit Baku, and our counter-proposals do not suit Yerevan. The only way out is direct negotiations on the border. Why not?" Musabekov noted.

In his opinion, it is not difficult to organize direct bilateral negotiations in the border region.

"I believe that as long as the Biden administration sits in Washington and the Senate is ruled by a Democratic majority, there is no reason to expect a balanced attitude from the US in the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement. Similarly, the European mediation is under strong pressure from President Macron in favour of the Armenians. Moscow, on the other hand, is being ignored by the Pashinyan government itself. What remains is a neutral ground in Tbilisi or a meeting on the conditional border," Musabekov said.

At the same time, Russian political scientist Alexander Ryabtsov is sure that Armenia has found itself in a situation where it has no way out.

"The point is that Yerevan has got itself cornered with its own policy. Saying one thing and doing another is Yerevan's method of action, because of which many people, including in the West, have stopped believing Armenian statements. The West is not stupid. How many times can you talk about your commitment to the peace process and then do the opposite? Even if you are generally supported by a number of Western countries, you should have a sense of proportion.

Everyone understands perfectly well that Armenia has been dragging its feet for three years with the fulfilment of its obligations under the Trilateral Statement and has not lifted a finger during that time. That is, everything ended with the fact that without waiting for the withdrawal of armed groups of militants from its territory, Azerbaijan carried out a 'sanitation' of Karabakh. But during this time Armenia could have done a lot within the framework of the withdrawal of armed groups, assisted in the integration of Karabakh Armenians, and been a kind of peaceful non-public moderator of this process, helping Baku. However, Yerevan withdrew itself, and moreover, carried out aggressive attacks on Azerbaijan, accusing it of 'genocide' and 'ethnic cleansing'. And lost the limit of trust.

That is why now, when Yerevan is trying to make itself look like the 'injured' party, despite the powerful support of the Armenian lobby, pro-Armenian centres of power in the US, EU countries, particularly France, it is not possible to look convincing to the world community. Even Armenian sponsors abroad have no special desire to support Armenia if it looks like a theatre of the absurd. Washington and Paris may smear their name for the sake of Yerevan's adventures only in a certain proportion, and then Yerevan will have to do everything at its own risk.

Therefore, Yerevan will continue the process of the peace treaty. And, I think, it will sign the peace treaty within six months - otherwise, Armenia will have to go into final isolation on all fronts," Ryabtsov said.