Breaking point for NATO: What happens if US pulls out?

As tensions rise and political rhetoric heats up, the very future of NATO is being questioned—especially with the growing calls from some US political figures to pull America out of the alliance. 

Bloomberg reveals in a fresh article that removing America from NATO would be a monumental mistake, but it’s a scenario that some prominent Republican politicians are seriously contemplating. As Senator Markwayne Mullin recently said, “NATO has not always been playing in our best interest. And when it’s not America’s best interest anymore, we should relook at things.”

Despite the growing rhetoric, NATO remains valuable to the US. Europe’s defence spending, driven by Russian threats and pressure from the US, is finally meeting NATO’s goal of 2 per cent of GDP. NATO is considering raising that goal to 3.5 per cent, matching the US current defence expenditure. Europe’s defence industry is booming, producing large amounts of high-quality equipment. However, US relations with Europe, particularly over the handling of China and Russia, are becoming increasingly strained.

In the event of a US pullout, Europe would likely form a new security alliance, possibly a European Treaty Organisation (ETO) or even create a new framework under the European Union. As NATO would unravel, Europe’s defence policies would diverge, increasing spending on nuclear and aerospace capabilities and considering conscription. Europe might even align more with China economically, further distancing itself from the US.

Ultimately, if the US exits NATO, Europe would strengthen its defense and make it clear that yielding to Russian aggression, especially in Ukraine, is not an option. The future of transatlantic relations hangs in the balance, and if NATO collapses, it may not end well for either side of the Atlantic.

By Naila Huseynova