Can allies strengthen Ukraine's position for a fair peace deal?

The Financial Times article addresses the critical juncture Ukraine faces in its conflict with Russia, emphasizing the need for strong support from Kyiv's allies to secure a favourable peace settlement. The article highlights the growing debate over how to end the war, particularly in light of potential shifts in U.S. leadership and policy.

The piece opens by discussing the impact of potential U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump and his isolationist stance, which could influence U.S. foreign policy and peace negotiations. Trump's vague promises of ending the conflict overnight and proposals for ceasefire in exchange for territorial concessions are criticized as unrealistic and insufficient. Hungarian Premier Viktor Orbán’s peace mission, including his visits to Kyiv, Moscow, and Mar-a-Lago, is portrayed as ineffectual, reflecting the broader challenges of negotiating peace.

The article then shifts focus to Ukraine's current position. It notes that, despite significant military support from allies, Kyiv's ability to fully liberate its territory is limited. The ongoing Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and the resulting humanitarian crisis contribute to increasing public fatigue and a growing openness to peace negotiations, including possible territorial concessions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s initiative to host a multilateral peace conference, involving Russia and other key players, is acknowledged but also viewed as facing significant obstacles due to irreconcilable demands from both sides.

The article argues against forcing Ukraine into an unfavourable settlement through threats to cut off military aid, a stance supported by some Trump supporters. It suggests that such an approach would be disastrous not only for Ukraine but for European security as well. Instead, it asserts that a just peace should not merely focus on territorial restoration but also on ensuring Ukraine’s future as a prosperous and independent democracy.

The Financial Times emphasizes that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s goals extend beyond territorial gains to undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty. Rewarding such aggression would likely encourage further conflict and embolden Russia’s allies, particularly China. The article warns against the naivety of believing that Putin would negotiate in good faith, suggesting that a robust and sustained commitment from Ukraine’s allies is crucial.

In conclusion, the article stresses that for any peace deal to be viable and lasting, Ukraine’s allies must provide substantial security guarantees and maintain strong support. The Financial Times calls on European and other international partners to increase their backing of Ukraine’s efforts to secure a just peace, arguing that only a situation where Russia has no alternative will compel it to agree to a fair settlement.