China-India border agreement raises more questions than answers

An article from The Hill discusses the recent border agreement between China and India, reached during the 16th annual BRICS summit. While some analysts view the deal as historic and a significant thaw in relations, skepticism abounds regarding its actual impact on the long-standing tensions between the two nations.

The agreement, which involves the withdrawal of troops from two specific points in Ladakh, does not address the fundamental issues of conflicting territorial claims, particularly in regions like Arunachal Pradesh, where China asserts extensive claims over Indian territory. The cautious optimism surrounding the deal is countered by concerns expressed by analysts like Brahma Chellaney, who notes that both countries still disagree on the underlying problems and interpretations of their recent agreements.

The geopolitical implications of the agreement are noteworthy. Some commentators argue that it represents a setback for US efforts to build alliances aimed at countering China’s influence. The establishment of new security partnerships, such as the Quad and AUKUS, suggests a strategic pivot by the US in response to China's growing assertiveness. The border pact is seen as potentially diminishing India’s inclination to confront China within these alliances, leading to a weakening of US-led initiatives.

However, this interpretation may overlook India’s strategic priorities. Analysts like Sadanand Dhume emphasize that India is wary of China attempting to manipulate BRICS for anti-Western purposes, as India relies on Western investment and markets for its economic growth. Consequently, India is unlikely to align closely with China’s agenda, regardless of the BRICS dynamics.

Furthermore, the article highlights a growing recognition of India as an essential global player, suggesting that its influence within BRICS could challenge China’s dominance in the group. The expansion of BRICS to include more members has raised questions about its efficacy, with concerns that it may suffer the same dysfunctions as other large international coalitions, like the G20 and the UN.

Overall, while the border agreement may suggest a temporary easing of tensions, deeper issues remain unresolved. The article concludes that as China’s influence wanes and India’s rises, fundamental differences between the two nations are likely to persist and may even intensify, casting doubt on the longevity of any thaw in relations.