China records fastest population decline yet amid plunging birthrate

China’s population declined for a fourth consecutive year in 2025 as births fell to a new record low, according to official data, deepening concerns among demographers about the country’s long-term economic and social prospects.

Figures released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed the population fell by 3.39 million to 1.405 billion, a faster decline than in 2024. Births dropped sharply to 7.92 million in 2025, down 17% from 9.54 million the previous year, while deaths increased to 11.31 million from 10.93 million. The national birthrate fell to 5.63 births per 1,000 people, Caliber.Az reports per The Guardian. 

Yi Fuxian, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said births in 2025 were “roughly the same level as in 1738, when China’s population was only about 150 million”.

The death rate rose to 8.04 per 1,000 people, the highest level since 1968. China’s population has been shrinking since 2022 and is ageing rapidly, complicating Beijing’s efforts to boost domestic consumption, stabilise growth and rein in rising debt.

People aged 60 and above now account for about 23% of the total population, according to NBS data. By 2035, the number of people over 60 is expected to reach 400 million — roughly equivalent to the combined populations of the United States and Italy. This shift means hundreds of millions of workers are likely to exit the labour force at a time when pension systems are already under significant strain.

In response, China has begun raising retirement ages. Men are now expected to work until 63, up from 60, while women’s retirement ages have increased to 58 from 55.

Marriage trends have added to demographic pressures. Registrations plunged by nearly 20% in 2024, the steepest drop on record, with just over 6.1 million couples marrying, compared with 7.68 million in 2023. Marriages are widely viewed by demographers as a leading indicator of future birthrates in China.

However, there are tentative signs of stabilisation. A policy change introduced in May 2025 allowing couples to marry anywhere in the country — rather than only in their place of household registration — is expected to lead to a temporary rise in births. Marriage registrations rose 22.5% year on year to 1.61 million in the third quarter of 2025, putting China on course to halt an almost decade-long annual decline. Full-year marriage data will be released later this year.

Authorities are also promoting “positive views on marriage and child-bearing” as they attempt to counter the long-term effects of the one-child policy, which ran from 1980 to 2015. While the policy helped reduce poverty, it profoundly reshaped family structures and demographic trends.

Urbanisation has compounded the challenge. Large-scale migration from rural areas to cities — where housing, childcare and education costs are higher — has discouraged larger families. China’s urbanisation rate reached 68% in 2025, up from about 43% in 2005.

Population planning has become a central pillar of economic strategy. Beijing faces potential costs of about 180 billion yuan this year to encourage childbirth, according to Reuters estimates. Measures include a national child subsidy and a pledge that from 2026 women will have “no out-of-pocket expenses” during pregnancy, with all medical costs — including IVF — fully reimbursed under the national medical insurance fund.

Despite these efforts, China’s fertility rate remains among the lowest globally, at around one birth per woman, well below the replacement rate of 2.1. The pool of women of reproductive age is forecast to shrink by more than two-thirds to fewer than 100 million by the end of the century, underscoring the scale of the demographic challenge ahead.

By Sabina Mammadli