Could Kazakhstan help revive Istanbul peace format for Ukraine, Russia?

The conflict in Ukraine has entered an increasingly brutal stage, with military operations by both sides now reaching deep into enemy territory and devastating reports of attacks emerging almost daily. With no apparent end in sight to a war that has now entered its fifth year, multiple diplomatic efforts have been launched to find a peaceful resolution, so far without success. One of those countries on the relatively short list of those maintaining relations with both sides now appears to be considering a more active role in the diplomatic process, with a recent statement by Kazakhstan’s president drawing widespread attention.

Kazakhstan appears to have taken a step forward in the diplomatic arena when President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev proposed that the parties suspend their military operations and restart the Istanbul peace process, as cited by Russian and Kazakh media outlets, with international guarantors approved by both sides.

“Perhaps it is time to freeze this conflict and return to the Istanbul Formula 2.0, because significant results were achieved there. Then, under guarantees from the great powers, including Russia, we could move toward the long-awaited peace,” the Central Asian leader said during his visit to the Russian city of Omsk, where he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the Russia-Kazakhstan Interregional Cooperation Forum.

It is important to recall that President Tokayev has previously stated that he does not want Kazakhstan to become a mediator in the conflict or replace other existing diplomatic processes. Rather, Astana has sought to promote dialogue and concrete actions that could move negotiations forward. Depending on the requirements of Kyiv and Moscow, Astana could also facilitate dialogue between the two sides.

Nevertheless, could Kazakhstan’s cautious steps towards participation be a game changer? It remains to be seen, but Tokayev’s direct statement has certainly attracted international attention by putting forward a proposal that is likely to be on the minds of many world leaders.

Astana has a history of attempting to promote dialogue, including hosting a round of negotiations between the Iranian and US governments in 2013, which eventually contributed to the Iran nuclear deal. Kazakhstan also hosted the Astana Peace Process aimed at helping end the Syrian conflict.

Far beyond the international standing that Astana could gain by attempting to bring both sides toward a peaceful resolution, the Central Asian country has much to gain from an end to the war as the continuation and expansion directly affects Kazakhstan’s own interests. Trade flows across Eurasia have been heavily disrupted, creating a range of unexpected costs and logistical difficulties. A drone attack on an oil tanker at a Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) marine terminal in the Black Sea on July 30 forced Kazakhstan to suspend the flow of Kazakh oil once again. In other words, bringing the war in Ukraine to at least a temporary halt is not only in the interests of Kyiv and Moscow, but also of countries across Eurasia and beyond that are being affected directly or indirectly by the conflict.

Tokayev referred to the Istanbul peace talks, which represented one of the earliest efforts to move toward a negotiated solution to the conflict that erupted in February 2022. The first meeting took place in late March 2022, when a document known as the Istanbul Communiqué, “Key Provisions of the Treaty on Ukraine’s Security Guarantees,” was drafted as a potential foundation for a peace agreement. As the continuing military operations demonstrate, however, the dialogue failed to progress, as fighting on the ground, in the air and in the Black Sea prevented negotiators from maintaining momentum. By mid-April, the peace talks had effectively ended.

Despite the breakdown of the Istanbul format, Tokayev appears to have identified some of the conditions he believes could be necessary for a successful negotiation, as he touched on the importance of international guarantors to ensure the sustainability of a peace process and future ceasefires in his statement in Omsk. 

While the Russian leader's Press Secretary, Dmitry Peskov, responded to this call by stating that a "per se freezing" of the conflict is "impossible" and that Russia has to reach its goals, it remains to be seen whether this gesture of a helping hand will be warmly received or rejected.

By Nazrin Sadigova