Estonia eyes British nuclear jets following Russian MiG-31 airspace violation

Estonia has expressed its willingness to host British fighter jets capable of carrying nuclear weapons, the country’s Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur said on September 22. The announcement comes in the wake of a recent airspace violation by Russian MiG-31 jets, which entered Estonian territory for 12 minutes, prompting NATO leaders to review rules of engagement.

Asked by The Telegraph if Estonia would be ready to host nuclear-capable British F-35A fighter jets in the future, Pevkur stated, “I’m always open. The door is always open for allies.” The minister emphasised that Estonia remains committed to supporting NATO partners and hosting allied aircraft if necessary.

Earlier this year, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that the United Kingdom would purchase 12 sixth-generation F-35s, with deliveries expected by the end of the decade. The F-35A can carry the B61 nuclear bomb, a capability controlled by the United States, meaning Washington would have to approve any nuclear strike. However, analysts caution that deploying nuclear-capable jets near Russia could provoke a sharp reaction from Moscow.

British F-35 fighters have already rotated through Estonia’s Amari Air Base as part of NATO’s Baltic Air Policing mission, which also covers Latvia and Lithuania, none of which operate their own fighter jets. The Royal Air Force has also sent Typhoon jets to Poland under the newly announced Eastern Sentry mission, following multiple Russian drone incursions across the Polish border.

Before the recent Russian airspace violations, Pevkur had told local media that Estonia was ready to host allied jets, even those with dual nuclear capability. However, British military sources have indicated that the F-35As may not be deployed to Estonia upon entering service. One source noted that stationing nuclear-capable aircraft in Estonia “acts less as a deterrence, more as an agitator” and places the jets at “high risk in the case of a Russian first strike.”

In response to the recent MiG-31 incursion, NATO has been consulting on its next steps after Estonia triggered Article 4 consultations. A joint declaration is expected soon, but alliance officials are likely to avoid calls for an automatic shoot-down of any Russian aircraft violating NATO airspace.

At a press briefing in Tallinn, Pevkur said NATO’s response should be “proportionate” and considered on a “case-by-case basis.” He added that the Russian jets “were not flying towards our capital” and did not carry weapons that posed “an acute threat to our sovereignty and national security.” The minister stressed, however, that Estonia would not hesitate to engage Russian aircraft if a direct threat emerged.

While Czech President Petr Pavel has called for immediate shoot-downs of any violating aircraft, Pevkur cautioned that such decisions are more complex in practice. “I would like to know what is the response of the Czech defence forces and their air force when they have something in their air space,” he said. Similarly, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk affirmed that Poland would shoot down any objects violating its territory but noted that ambiguous situations, such as incursions over offshore oil platforms, require careful consideration to avoid escalating conflicts.

The United Kingdom has also reaffirmed its readiness to confront Russian jets entering NATO airspace. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper told the UN General Assembly in New York, “We are vigilant, we are resolute, and if we need to confront planes that are operating in NATO airspace without permission, then we will do so.”

Moscow, meanwhile, denies that its aircraft entered Estonian airspace and has condemned the incident as a Western “provocation.” Pevkur responded that Estonia possesses radar data, photographs, and multiple other indicators confirming the violation. He added that the Russian pilots were repeatedly warned via radio to leave Estonian airspace but did not comply. The jets were eventually escorted out by Italian F-35s stationed at Amari Air Base under NATO’s Baltic Air Policing mission.

By Tamilla Hasanova