Euractiv: Uncertainty surrounds NATO's approach to Russia ahead of July summit

NATO members have long been expected to reassess their relationship with Moscow, but discussions have been stalled for several months, according to multiple diplomats who spoke with Euractiv.

At the Alliance's summit last year, leaders from the 32 member countries expressed a desire to "develop recommendations on NATO's strategic approach to Russia, considering the evolving security environment," with the goal of presenting them at their next summit in July.

The summit in The Hague was intended to mark a pivotal moment in the NATO-Russia relationship, which had been completely suspended following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and has remained frozen ever since. However, with the US now negotiating a peace settlement between Russia and Ukraine, all talks on the issue have been put "on hold," a source told Euractiv.

Any change in NATO's stance on Russia could significantly influence the outcome, as the alliance’s direction is tightly linked to the future of the war or peace in Ukraine, as well as Russia's role in either scenario.

"We don’t talk about it," said one diplomat, four months ahead of the summit.

There is uncertainty about President Trump's intentions. "At this stage, we do not know," another source confirmed, reflecting the uncertainty among NATO members.

Biden caused surprise among military allies when he held a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin in January, just days after taking office. Under his mediation, Moscow and Kyiv reached a ceasefire agreement in the Black Sea, and the US also approved easing sanctions on Russia's economy.

"Discussions are ongoing among Allies regarding the Hague Summit, and I wouldn’t want to speculate on any conversations happening," a senior U.S. official stated, though they did not respond to Euractiv's inquiry about the US stance. "Regarding Ukraine, all Allies agree that the death and destruction must stop. President Biden seeks to promote peace, and at his direction, we are prepared to provide the decisive leadership necessary to reach a sustainable resolution," the official added.

While all NATO members agree that the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act, which defined the relationship between the two, is no longer relevant, dismantling it completely remains a point of contention.

There are differing views on whether NATO should unilaterally declare the agreement null and void or wait to see if a bilateral agreement with Russia can be negotiated in the future.

For now, as reiterated by NATO leaders at last summer’s summit, "Russia remains the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security," signaling a shift in tone from the period before Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

By Tamilla Hasanova